Cryptowatch Macro — cryptowatch.id

The single thing to look at first. A 4-layer synthesis of every other indicator on the dashboard, collapsed into one number and one verdict. Score range −24 to +24.

The 4 layers (research basis: April 2026 next-gen indicator framework):

L1 Macro Regime — is the environment right for BTC to move? (M2, DXY, BTC-SPX correlation)
L2 Cycle Position — where in the 4-year cycle? (AVIV, Halving regime, Bottom Proximity)
L3 On-Chain Stress — approaching capitulation? (Tier 1 + LTH/STH MVRV + Coinbase Premium)
L4 Execution Timing — is now the moment? (Funding, OI/Mcap, DVOL, IV term, skew, liquidations)

Each indicator contributes −2 to +2. Verdict bands: STRONG SELL < −16, SELL −16..−8, MILD SELL −8..−2, WAIT −2..+2, MILD BUY +2..+8, BUY +8..+16, STRONG BUY > +16.

How to use: the gauge is the headline. The breakdown table shows which indicators are pulling the score in which direction — that's where you go to challenge the verdict before acting.

When two panels disagree, which one leads? The composite SIGNAL is a single number, but underneath it 15+ lenses are all voting — and sometimes they vote differently. This panel detects the 3 most common divergences and applies a documented resolution rule to each, so you don't have to argue with yourself.

Rule 1 · Tier 1 gates SIGNAL magnitude. If SIGNAL is ≥ +8 but Tier 1 triggered is 0/4, the conviction is structurally incomplete — treat as lower-conviction entry and reserve dry powder. Tier 1 is the high-confidence bottom filter; absent Tier 1 confirmation, position sizes should be scaled down.

Rule 2 · Aggregate MVRV > LTH SOPR for cycle-wide reads. LTH SOPR firing in isolation (e.g. 0.795 < 0.80) is a cohort signal — telling you long-term holders are selling at a loss. But it does NOT mean the market-wide bottom is priced. Only when aggregate MVRV crosses below 1.0 does the network as a whole trade below its collective cost basis, which is the true Tier-1 condition. LTH SOPR is a leading indicator, not a confirmation.

Rule 3 · Cohort Confluence > CDD for structural calls. CDD flagging "distribution wave" while the 3-cohort Confluence panel shows 3/3 BULL is the classic "tax-loss harvesting vs real distribution" trap. CDD measures movement of old coins — it can fire for custody rebalancing, tax events, or genuine selling. When LTH + ETF + Smart Money all point bullish, CDD is probably flagging movement, not surrender.

How to read: if no rule is active, the "No conflicts" state means all lenses agree with SIGNAL — highest conviction. If a rule is active, the verdict tells you which lens to weight more heavily.

3-AI debate engine orchestrated by CryptoWatch's AI Orchestrator. Every morning at 08:10 WIB, three specialist AIs independently analyze the same data you see on this dashboard, then the Orchestrator weighs their arguments and produces a final verdict.

The debaters: On-Chain Analyst (on-chain framework specialist — reads AVIV, LTH SOPR, Tier 1, cycle position), Macro Analyst (macro analyst with live web search — CPI, FOMC, DXY, breaking news), Sentiment Analyst (sentiment specialist — X/Twitter mood, whale alerts, narrative shifts).

The orchestrator: Deep Analysis Engine identifies where they agree (high conviction) vs disagree (requires judgment), weights each AI by their domain strength per timeframe, and resolves conflicts with transparent reasoning.

BTC Price Direction: Weighted synthesis of composite score, momentum (F&G vs price), IV regime, and on-chain stress. Not a price target — just directional bias for today.

Crypto Market Cap: Follows BTC direction, modulated by rotation unlock status and alt momentum.

Overall Sentiment: The human-readable regime label. Combines cycle position, fear level, LTH behavior, and macro backdrop into a single word.

BTC Trade Bias: Should you be looking at longs, shorts, or neither? Based on composite direction, funding regime, IV positioning, and cycle phase. NEUTRAL = no trade zone — the expected value of taking a position is too close to zero.

Confidence levels: >65% = high conviction (multiple layers agree). 50-65% = moderate (some disagreement). <50% = low (conflicting signals, treat as coin-flip).

Disclaimer: Short-term predictions are inherently low-confidence. This framework is designed for cycle-level positioning (weeks/months). Intraday accuracy of 55% is honest — nobody reliably predicts BTC's next 12 hours.

Glassnode's 7-category 2-axis framework. Each category is scored on Level (Low / Moderate / High) and Direction (Rising / Declining / Flat) independently. Level positions each metric against its own 2-year 20/80 percentile band — the thresholds auto-calibrate as the market matures, so a reading of "High" in 2026 means something comparable to "High" in 2022. Direction is the 7-day week-over-week delta.

Why both axes: the single-number composite gauge above answers "should I act?" The scorecard answers "why is the market in this state?" A BUY verdict with most categories Low/Rising is far more convicted than the same verdict with categories spread across High/Declining.

Categories: Spot (price momentum + exchange flow) · Futures (funding, OI, leverage) · Options (skew, IV, vol risk premium) · ETF (Glassnode Purpose proxy) · Fundamental (addresses, transfers, hash) · Capital Flows (realized cap change, hot capital share, LTH supply) · P&L States (supply in profit, NUPL, realized P&L ratio).

How to read it: look for asymmetry. All categories Low/Rising = constructive base. All categories High/Declining = distribution. Mixed = transitional. Fundamental disagreeing with Spot is the classic divergence pattern (price up, base layer cooling = fragile rally).

The first filter the legacy on-chain toolkit was missing. Per the next-gen indicator framework: any indicator that ignores macro is structurally incomplete post-2020. BTC moves in M2's direction 83% of the time on a 12-month basis (Lyn Alden, Sep 2024). Fed rate hikes in 2022 directly drained liquidity from BTC and broke the 200W MA support that had held in every prior cycle.

M2 YoY (US): rolling year-over-year change in US M2 money supply. >3% rising = RISK-ON, 0–3% = neutral, <0% = RISK-OFF, <−2% = STRONG RISK-OFF. Source: FRED M2SL (free, monthly).

DXY 3m: US Dollar Index 3-month % change. Rising DXY = dollar scarcity = risk-off. Falling = liquidity expansion = risk-on. Note: post-ETF the DXY relationship has weakened (r² 0.70 → 0.45) — never use alone, always cross-reference with M2.

BTC-SPX 30d correlation: regime detector. >0.6 = BTC behaves as risk asset, macro dominates. 0.3–0.6 = mixed. <0.3 = BTC decoupled, on-chain dominates. <0 = safe haven / gold-like. This card doesn't push the gauge directionally — it tells you which other layers should dominate your read.

How to use: if all 3 cards align RISK-ON, the macro environment is BTC-friendly and you can lean into Tier 1/2 confluence signals. If macro is RISK-OFF, even a strong on-chain confluence may struggle against tightening liquidity (see 2022 cycle).

Real-time institutional demand layer. Two complementary views of how aggressively US institutional money is moving BTC right now.

IBIT (BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust) — the largest US spot ETF since the January 2024 launch. The top card tracks USD turnover (volume × close price from Twelve Data) and compares today vs the 30-day SMA. Activity multiplier >1.5× = surge, <0.5× = lull. This is a real-time activity proxy. Per-fund net flows (daily, 7d, 30d cumulative) for all 10 US spot ETFs are shown in the expandable table below, sourced from Surf.

Coinbase Premium Index — live spread between Coinbase Pro (BTC-USD, US institutional venue) and Binance (BTC-USDT, global retail). Sustained >0.10% = institutional accumulation (US buyers paying premium), near-zero = neutral, sustained negative = retail/offshore dominance or institutional exit. Post-ETF this is the single best real-time proxy for ETF arbitrage flows because Coinbase is the custodian for most US spot ETFs. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

How to use: when both cards are bullish (IBIT activity surging + premium positive), institutional bid is strong — lean into Tier 1/2 confluence. When both bearish (low activity + negative premium), institutional flow is exiting — be cautious.

Net on-chain flow by segment. Aggregated via Nansen Token God Mode (Pro). Tracks Exchange (CEX), DEX, and Smart Money flows for BTC, ETH, and SOL.

Signal: Positive exchange flow = coins moving to CEX (sell pressure). Negative exchange flow = coins leaving CEX (accumulation). Smart money direction serves as a leading indicator for structural trends.

Single consolidated answer to "is money flowing INTO or OUT OF crypto right now?" Every other panel in this dashboard tracks either positions (what holders are doing) or prices (how markets are valuing things). This panel tracks actual dollar flow at the system boundary.

What counts as a dollar flow (in the composite):

• Stablecoin Supply Δ (USDT + USDC) — when stables are minted, it's because someone wrapped USD at the issuer. That's $1 of real dollars entering crypto. When burned, the reverse. This is the cleanest wholesale on-ramp signal and the one Raoul Pal, Willy Woo, and James Check all use as their primary "net dollar flow into crypto" proxy.
• US Spot BTC ETF Net Flows — when IBIT/FBTC/etc. create shares, the Authorized Participant delivers USD which gets converted to BTC at Coinbase custody. Real dollars entering. Redemptions reverse the flow.

What does NOT count (shown as context below, not in composite):

• Futures OI Δ — leverage commitment. Mixes dollar margin (CME, Coinbase Premium) with coin margin (HL, Binance perps). Directionally useful as a "risk appetite" signal but not a clean dollar flow.
• BTC Exchange Reserve Δ — coin custody movement. Coins leaving exchanges = structural supply reduction (bullish) but those coins are moving within the crypto system, not converting to/from dollars.

How to read the composite: positive = net new dollars entering crypto (risk-on pipeline). Negative = net dollars leaving (risk-off / profit-taking). Multi-billion-dollar flows over 7d = strong conviction regime. Magnitudes below $500M/week are in the noise.

LTH (Long-Term Holder) = wallets holding BTC for >155 days. Historically the smartest single cohort to track. Their behavior is mechanically contrarian — they accumulate during fear and distribute during euphoria. This panel classifies their current phase and tracks net position change across multiple horizons.

The 6 phases (classified daily):

• Euphoric Distribution — shrinking + SOPR>1.5 + MVRV>3 → cycle top (Dec 2017, Nov 2021, Mar 2024)
• Healthy Distribution — shrinking + SOPR 1.1–1.5 + MVRV 2–3 → late-bull profit taking
• Pure Capitulation — shrinking + SOPR<1 → weak hands forced out at losses (3 of 4 past bottoms: 2015/2018/2020)
• Accumulation at Profit — growing + SOPR>1 → early-bull accumulation
• Accumulation Through Capitulation — growing + SOPR<1 → post-ETF bottom signature (only 2022 FTX bottom fired this pre-current)
• Holding — flat → mid-cycle equilibrium

How to read Net Position Change: positive = cohort GROWING (more new STH coins aging into LTH than LTH coins being sold) = net accumulation. Negative = cohort SHRINKING = net distribution. Threshold: 10K BTC/30d to separate real behavior from noise.

How to read LTH SOPR: average profit/loss ratio of spent coins from the LTH cohort. <1.0 = LTH coins being spent at a loss (capitulation). >1.0 = at profit (taking gains). >1.5 = aggressive profit taking (top warning). <0.8 = deep capitulation (bottom signal).

How to use: when LTH phase is Accumulation (either kind) and Tier 1/2 confluence is present → highest conviction bull setup. When phase is Euphoric Distribution + composite gauge >8 → highest conviction bear setup. Contradiction between LTH phase and composite gauge = divergence worth investigating.

One question, three lenses: is the current BTC bid structural or just leverage?

• Leverage (CoinGlass 25-exchange OI 24h change) — are traders stacking risk or unwinding? Big 24h drops = forced deleveraging = contrarian bull. Big 24h builds = crowded, fragile.
• Supply (CoinGlass 20-exchange CEX reserve 30d netflow) — are BTC coins leaving exchanges (outflow = cold storage = supply crunch = bullish) or piling onto exchanges (inflow = pre-sell signal)?
• Demand (CoinGlass US spot BTC ETF concentration) — is institutional flow broadening (healthy) or dangerously concentrated in one fund (fragile)?

The synthesis: when 3 of 3 are bullish, the rally has structural legs and leverage is NOT the driver. When 2 of 3 are bullish, watch the odd one out carefully. When ≤1 is bullish, any price action is suspect — it's likely leverage-led and vulnerable to a flush.

4 independent cycle indicators from CoinGlass, running in parallel to our Glassnode-derived cycle_phase output. Use these for cross-validation — if all 4 agree with our composite, conviction is high. If they diverge, something in one of the data pipelines is off.

• Puell Multiple — miner revenue vs 365d MA. <0.5 = capitulation (bottom), >4.0 = euphoria (top).
• Pi Cycle Top — 111d MA vs 2× 350d MA ratio. When ratio hits 1.0, Pi Cycle signals the cycle top (fired within days of 2013/2017/2021 tops).
• 2Y MA Multiplier — price vs 730d MA. Below MA = historical buy zone, above 5× MA = historical sell zone.
• AHR999 DCA — DCA efficiency indicator popular among Chinese traders. <0.45 = DCA zone, 0.45-1.2 = moderate, >1.2 = overheating.

Three jobs this panel does: (1) risk management — tells you if you're doubled up on the same trade; (2) regime detection — auto-classifies current market from VIX + BTC/SPX; (3) one actionable signal — DXY 3-month trend, the only correlation-based forward-return predictor that survived backtest (86% WR when DXY falls >3% over 3 months, n=442).

The tiers:

• Tier 1 Macro — DXY, VIX, 10Y, M2. Tells you the environment BTC is operating in.
• Tier 2 Equity / Commodity — SPX, NDX, Gold, Oil. "Same desks" regime check.
• Tier 3 Crypto Internal — ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE. Zero intra-crypto diversification currently (r>0.93 for the majors).

Column legend: 30d / 90d rolling Pearson correlation on daily returns. Δ arrow = week-over-week corr trend. Values grayed out when p > 0.05 (statistically insignificant — ignore them).

Backtest findings embedded:

• Gold leading BTC by 3-7 months is a myth on daily returns (max r=+0.02 at 90d lag).
• 10Y yield is statistically insignificant (p=0.227 full period).
• ETH is BTC with leverage: r=0.93. Holding both = 2x same risk.
• DXY 3m trend is the only signal that passed the forward-return test: 86% WR.

How to use: start with the hero — if DXY is triggered, size up BTC. Check the regime detector — if VIX <18, you're in risk-on mode. Scan the crypto tier — if you hold BTC + ETH + SOL, recognize they're the same position. Ignore grayed-out (noise) rows entirely.

Where institutional capital is rotating inside the crypto ecosystem right now. The old "BTC → ETH → alts → memes" sequence is dead. In 2026 capital flows across 5 parallel zones, and tokenized RWAs (Zone 1) are a permanent new competitor for institutional dollars that didn't exist pre-2024.

Fill % = zone activation level. Each zone has a formula: Z1 = combined dry powder vs $400B reference, Z2 = BTC price proximity to TMM, Z3 = ETH/BTC ratio position, Z4 = altseason index / 60, Z5 = both altseason and F&G above 50.

Hero verdict shows which zone is currently absorbing the marginal institutional dollar. Rotation unlocks are the 4 sequential triggers (macro pivot → BTC regime shift → large cap rotation → full altseason) that must fire before capital reaches Z5. 30d capital allocation is the monthly flow into each destination from parquet-cached feeds.

How to use: glance at the hero for current active zone. Scan the 5 horizontal bars to see where money is stacked vs drained. Read the stepper to know which unlock is next and what's blocking it. The bottom callout names the single next thing to watch.

Head-to-head comparison of the 3 orthogonal smart-money cohorts. Most dashboards show each cohort in isolation. This panel answers the one question they don't: do the 3 lenses agree right now?

The 3 cohorts:

• LTH (Long-Term Holders) — on-chain cohort >155 days held. ~14.7M BTC. Contrarian by design: accumulates during fear, distributes during euphoria. The old "follow LTH" heuristic.
• ETF / TradFi Institutional — US spot BTC ETF creations/redemptions. ~$130B+ of BTC in custody. Behaviorally trend-following in aggregate (flows correlate with 30d returns) but with a sticky long-only component (RIAs, pensions) that adds structural bid.
• Nansen Smart Money — wallets labeled by historical PnL track record. Contrarian like LTH but smaller pool, faster rotation. The "stable rotation" metric shows when they deploy captive stables into risk.

Conviction levels:

• 🟢 HIGHEST · 3/3 aligned — all three lenses pointing the same direction. Rarest + highest-signal setup. Historically fires at major cycle inflections.
• 🟡 MEDIUM · 2/3 aligned — two cohorts agree, one disagrees. Check the odd-one-out: it's either early (the leader) or wrong (the laggard). Usually the contrarian cohorts (LTH + SM) lead, and the trend-follower (ETF) lags by days to weeks.
• 🔴 LOW · divergent — all three split. No directional signal, but the divergence itself is information. Usually happens in mid-cycle chop or regime-transition moments.

How to use this: when conviction is HIGHEST and direction is bull → highest-probability accumulation setup. When HIGHEST and direction is bear → highest-probability distribution/top-risk setup. When MEDIUM, treat the odd-cohort as the key variable to monitor for flip. When LOW, wait for resolution — the panel is literally telling you "no clear direction yet."

What this panel doesn't do: predict price direction. It tells you what the three smart-money cohorts are doing RIGHT NOW. Cohorts can be wrong. But when all three agree, they're much less wrong than any single lens alone.

Top 15 labeled on-chain transfers in the last 24 hours, ≥$10M (auto-lowers to $5M on quiet days). BTC + ETH + SOL. Requires at least one labeled side via Arkham.

Adaptive regime: when CEX flows dominate, the badge shows sell-pressure / accumulation. When DeFi protocols or funds dominate the labeled activity, the badge shifts to "DeFi rotation" or "Fund activity" — telling you to discount the CEX-centric framing.

Flow type colors: rose = CEX deposit (sell pressure), aquamarine = CEX withdrawal (accumulation), amber = MM rail, purple = DeFi, sky blue = issuer, grey = entity-to-entity. Miner rows get an extra accent.

Detects market-reversal traps by cross-layer divergence. Whenever price moves one direction but orthogonal signals (Smart Money, exchange flows, sentiment, funding, capital flows, institutional flows) disagree, that's a trap signature. This panel lists the active divergences with full evidence — no opaque scoring, just transparent multi-source conflict detection.

Flag types:

• ⚠️ Bull Trap Risk — price rallied but signals diverge (distribution into strength, leveraged rally, weak institutional interest)
• ✅ Bear Trap Candidate — price declining but signals suggest hidden accumulation (contrarian bullish setup forming)
• 🎯 Accumulation Regime — bear trap that already sprung: price recovering while accumulation signals remain intact (the textbook "bottom is in" signature)
• 💀 Dead Cat Bounce Risk — short-term rally but structural bear intact (no buyer side, no fresh capital, loss realization continuing)

How to read: each flag requires 3+ orthogonal conditions agreeing before firing. Severity (low/medium/high) scales with how many conditions are present. The evidence bullets show WHICH signals fired — read them and decide whether you trust each one for your specific trade. When no flag is active, it means price and signals are aligned — the move is "clean," not a fakeout.

Caveats: these are 7-day-horizon signals based on daily data. Not for intraday scalping. Multi-source divergence increases probability of reversal but never guarantees it. Use as a "conflict checker" alongside the Composite Signal and Tier 1/2 panels above — not as a standalone decision.

Unified view showing bottom/top triggers (Tier 1 + Tier 2) sorted by proximity, with BTC-USD price translation for each.

Regime-Conditional Probability Distributions. Instead of pointing to a single price target, this panel projects the statistical distribution of BTC returns 10, 30, 60, and 90 days out—specifically filtered for periods where the macro regime and on-chain state match today.

The next-gen framework's #1 execution-layer signals. Built from the free Deribit public API, refreshed every 5 minutes. These are the most reliable derivatives bottom/top signals per the paper — they front-run on-chain confluence by days.

DVOL (Deribit Volatility Index) — implied volatility for at-the-money BTC options. Below 40% while BTC is at/near ATH = blow-off top warning (market not pricing tail risk). High DVOL during a drawdown = panic, often near a bottom. We show the latest value plus where it sits in its 30-day range.

IV Term Structure shape — relationship between near-dated and longer-dated implied vol. Backwardation (near IV > far IV) = panic / capitulation, BUY signal. Steep contango with low absolute IV = blow-off top warning. Normal contango = healthy bull market.

25-Delta Skew (proxy) — IV difference between 5%-OTM call and 5%-OTM put on the front-month expiry. Positive = market paying for upside (bullish), negative = market paying for downside (bearish hedging). >+10 = extreme bullish (potential local top), <−15 = extreme fear (bottom signal).

How to use: options are the EARLIEST signal — they front-run cycle confluence. When DVOL collapses to 30d lows while BTC trends down, fear is exhausted (often days before bottom). When skew flips deeply negative without a price reason, that's smart-money hedging.

Polymarket Skew Overlay: Directly compares BTC's spot price action against the implied probability of its major narrative events on Polymarket, surfacing hidden bullish or bearish divergences before they price in.

Where price gets magnetized when leverage flushes. Per the next-gen indicator framework: large liquidation clusters above price = short squeeze magnets, large clusters below = long cascade targets. Market makers often push price toward these clusters because the resulting forced flow is profitable.

How it's computed: Total open interest in BTC perp futures (Hyperliquid + Binance, free public APIs) split by current top-trader long/short ratio (Binance), then distributed across standard leverage tiers (5x / 10x / 20x / 50x / 100x) using a typical leverage allocation. We don't have per-position data without paid CoinGlass / Hyblock subscriptions, so the cluster sizes are estimates, not measured. The liquidation price levels are exact (computed from leverage formula).

Dealer pin: the option strike with the largest open interest within ±5% of current spot. Per the paper, dealer gamma forces near large options expiries can be 13× larger than daily ETF flows. Price tends to gravitate toward the max-pain pin into expiry.

How to use:

• Before a long entry → identify the nearest large long-liquidation cluster below as your stop zone (not just a technical level).
• At potential tops → if the largest liquidation cluster is directly above current price, market makers will likely push through it to liquidate shorts.
• Watch the dealer pin → when price is significantly above pin into expiry, expect downward gravity. Below pin → upward pull.

Canonical Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Alternative.me methodology, sourced via Surf). 0–100 scale aggregating volatility, market momentum, social media, surveys, dominance, and Google trends into one number.

How to read: 0–24 Extreme Fear · 25–49 Fear · 50 Neutral · 51–74 Greed · 75–100 Extreme Greed. Historically a contrarian indicator — readings below 25 have marked cycle bottoms (March 2020, June 2022, November 2022 FTX), readings above 85 have marked local tops.

How to use: combine with direction (rising from extreme fear = early accumulation signal; falling from extreme greed = early distribution signal). The 7d and 30d deltas shown here capture that velocity. A single low reading isn't enough — look for sustained multi-week extreme readings for cycle-turn conviction.

Why a separate panel from Sentiment: the Sentiment panel next to this one shows X/Twitter mood from Social AI. F&G is the aggregated canonical index. When they agree, conviction is high. When they diverge (e.g., extreme fear here but neutral X mood), something in the composite is driving it that social isn't catching — usually volatility or the dominance component.

Evidence-based cycle phase — composite 0–100 score from BTC on-chain valuation (MVRV, NUPL, Puell, Supply-in-profit, realized-price bands). Placed on the classic 4-phase wheel: Capitulation → Accumulation → Markup → Distribution.

How to read: the needle is the current score; the faint ghost marker shows where it sat 30 days ago — the direction tells you if the cycle is progressing forward (normal) or stalling / reversing. Bottom-right of the bar is the best risk/reward zone (late accumulation → early markup).

Not the same as Post-Halving Regime. This panel is data-driven; Post-Halving Regime is time-driven. When both agree on the same phase, conviction is highest. When they disagree, the disagreement itself is a signal — check the drivers in the signals ▾ panel.

Live BTC price chart with the full cycle-level stack overlaid: Realized Price (cyan), LTH Realized Price (green floor), STH Cost Basis (rose ceiling), True Market Mean (white dashed), 200-Week MA (purple). All levels are computed live — RP from Glassnode, 200WMA from HL daily candles, LTH/STH/TMM from the on-chain pipeline.

DCA zone shading: the 5 accumulation zones (A→E) are drawn as semi-transparent horizontal bands anchored to live RP × the backtested multipliers (0.70 / 0.88 / 1.00 / 1.11 / 1.25 / 1.33). They auto-rescale as RP moves.

How to read: when price enters a shaded zone, that's the trigger to deploy the DCA allocation for that zone. When price closes below RP for > 14 days, the Tier 2 "Price vs RP" signal fires.

Data source: Binance public REST (candlesticks) + glassnode-signals pipeline (overlay levels).

Bear Market Value Zone (BMVZ) — the price band between Realized Price (the network's aggregate cost basis, the floor) and the True Market Mean (cointime-economics value anchor, the ceiling). BTC spends most of its accumulation and redistribution time inside this zone. Price below RP = capitulation. Price above TMM = value zone exited, confirmation of the next expansion.

TMM is derived live from price ÷ AVIV ratio. The previous version of this dashboard used a hardcoded 1.44 × RP multiplier for TMM; that heuristic has been replaced.

LTH Cooldown Tracker — two bars marking when long-term-holder capitulation has cooled enough to confirm a bottom: (1) total Realized Loss 30d SMA needs to drop under M/day (total-loss proxy — Glassnode does not expose LTH-specific flow directly), and (2) LTH supply in loss needs to drop under 1M BTC. Both must cool before a confirmed base formation.

How to read: the yellow dot on the BMVZ bar shows current price. The red bars on the cooldown rows shrink as capitulation cools; when a bar crosses the cyan threshold line and turns green, that pillar is cooled.

The AI debate engine reads each major asset and outputs a per-asset positioning bias. Macro's headline composite is BTC-driven, but ETH, SOL, and HYPE often diverge from BTC and from each other. This panel exposes those divergences so you can size each book independently rather than copying the BTC stance across the board.

How to read. Bias = the AI's directional read after weighing macro / on-chain / sentiment / cycle for that specific asset. Conviction = how much the three analyst voices agreed. Size = recommended notional exposure as a % of the slot you've allocated to that asset. Rationale = the one-sentence "why" that drove the bias.

How to use. If BTC reads "Cautious Long 60-70%" and SOL reads "Neutral 30-40%", the SOL slot should run smaller and tighter regardless of how good the BTC setup looks. Cross-asset divergence is itself a signal — when ETH/SOL conviction is meaningfully higher than BTC, alts may be driving the next leg.

Phase 1 — surfaces what the existing AI debate already produces. Phase 2 will add per-asset cycle phase math (MVRV, NUPL, Puell) once the Glassnode collectors include ETH + SOL.

Post-ETF replacement layer for legacy MVRV-Z. Built on the ARK Invest x Glassnode Cointime Economics framework (August 2023). These metrics exclude lost/dormant coins from valuation calculations, giving a cleaner picture of active investor behavior — exactly the distortion that broke MVRV-Z post-2024.

AVIV Ratio (Active-Value-to-Investor-Value): the paper's primary post-ETF valuation signal. Long-term mean is consistently ~1.0, making it a true mean-reversion anchor unlike MVRV-Z which has been compressed by institutional realized cap inflation.
Bands: <0.55 extreme undervaluation · 0.55–0.75 deep accumulation · 0.75–1.00 accumulation (BUY) · 1.00–1.50 mid bull · 1.50–2.50 late bull · >2.50 cycle top.

Liveliness / Vaultedness: Liveliness = coinblocks destroyed / coinblocks created. Falling liveliness + rising vaultedness = LTHs hoarding old coins (BULLISH). Rising = LTHs distributing aged supply (BEARISH).

Realized Loss: total $ value of BTC sold at a loss. Paper rule: sustained <$25M/day = capitulation exhaustion (sellers gone, bottom near).

CDD (Coin Days Destroyed, supply-adjusted): measures how aggressively old coins are being moved. High = LTH distribution. Useful for detecting tops.

Honest backtest. For each major cycle inflection since 2015, this table shows what the composite framework would have scored using the exact same logic that's live today, applied retroactively to Glassnode data as of that date. The scoring pipeline runs via Time Machine mode (compute_cycle_phase(as_of_date=...)), so every MVRV/NUPL/Puell/SOPR/AVIV reading is the actual historical value on that day, not an estimate.

How to read the accuracy label:

• exact — framework nailed it. Position <5 + Tier1 ≥3 for bottoms, or position >80 + Tier1 0 for tops.
• good — framework got it mostly right (position <10 with 2+ Tier 1, or >60 for tops).
• partial — framework was in the right zone but not at extreme. Still actionable with lower conviction.
• miss — framework did not flag it. These are the honest failures.

What this table is not: it is NOT a future-prediction promise. Past performance ≠ future results. The framework has been tightened post-2022 (e.g., NUPL threshold lowered from <0 to <−0.15) which means some historical scores are what the current ruleset would have produced, not what the rules at that time were.

What to take from it: the framework has 4/5 exact calls on major bottoms/tops over 10 years, one "good" (FTX), one correct negative (May 2022 Luna — framework correctly said "not a bottom" and price kept falling). The genuine misses: COVID was too fast to register as 4/4 confluence, and the 2025 post-ETF cycle top scored Early Markup when it was actually a distribution zone. Know what the framework catches and what it doesn't.

Does the composite signal actually make money? This panel runs the live scoring logic retroactively over 3 years of BTC history and shows the equity curve of a simple strategy vs buy-and-hold + DCA.

Strategies:

• Conviction — long 100% at composite ≥ +6, flat at ≤ −6. Few trades, deep-value entries only.
• Mild — long at ≥ +3, flat at ≤ −3. More trades, less extreme thresholds.
• Buy & Hold — baseline: bought BTC on day 0, never sold.
• DCA — baseline: $1/day equal allocation regardless of price.

Honest scope: backtest uses only 7 Tier-1 L2+L3 signals (LTH MVRV, STH MVRV, LTH NUPL, Puell, MVRV Z, LTH SOPR, AVIV) because those are the metrics with multi-year parquet history. Live composite uses 21 signals including L1 Macro + L4 Execution which don't have long enough cached history to backtest honestly. Expect live results to differ. 10bps taker fee modeled per trade.

What the Sharpe and Max DD tell you: Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better; >1 is good, >2 is excellent). Max DD = worst peak-to-trough loss during the period. A high-Sharpe strategy with small DD is more valuable than a high-return strategy with brutal drawdowns, because humans can't actually hold through -80%.

Rolling pairwise correlation between the 4-layer framework's representative indicators over the last 90 days using daily log-returns. Shows which layers actually move together vs which are structurally orthogonal.

Why this matters: the framework's edge depends on orthogonal layers. If L1 Macro, L2 Cycle, L3 On-Chain, and L4 Execution all moved in lockstep, the composite would be no better than any single indicator. When correlations are LOW, the disagreement itself is information — a +8 BUY signal with low cross-layer correlation means 4 independent lenses all agree, which is rare and high-conviction. A +8 BUY with everything correlated 0.95 means you're really reading one signal four times.

How to read: darker cells = stronger correlation (same direction), amber = inverse correlation, near-zero = orthogonal. The right column shows each indicator's average absolute correlation with the others — low values = most orthogonal = most useful as independent confirmation.

Expected structure: price-derived on-chain metrics (AVIV/NUPL/MVRV-Z) will always be tightly coupled with BTC price (0.9+) — they're derivatives of price. The real orthogonality test is between macro (DXY, SPX) and execution (Funding) versus the on-chain stack. Funding near 0 correlation across the board = execution layer is doing its job as an independent lens.

Polymarket is a real-money prediction market. Every contract pays $1 if YES resolves true, $0 if NO. Prices are probabilities in real dollars — participants have skin in the game. This panel doesn't dump the raw watchlist (you can see that on polymarket.com). Instead it distills three things that actually matter to our framework: next Fed decision, policy regime for the year, and BTC implied range.

Fed · next meeting — aggregates the April 2026 FOMC contracts (hold / cut 25 / cut 50+ / hike). The dominant probability tells you whether a rate surprise is pricing in. Near-100% HOLD means no Fed catalyst this month.

Policy regime · 2026 — "zero cuts all year" probability + Fed Chair contracts. This is the direction of the year, not one meeting. High "zero cuts" + hawk Chair contract = hawkish regime pricing; low + dove Chair = dovish.

BTC implied range — takes the BTC price threshold contracts (upside at $150K / $250K, downside at $15K) and extracts tail probabilities. Narrow tails = consolidation regime. Fat upside = market pricing parabolic move. Fat downside = capitulation risk priced in.

Dashboard tie-in — the cyan bar compares Polymarket's pricing against our own LTH cohort read. When Polymarket prices a fat downside tail but our LTH is in accumulation signature (or vice versa), that's a trade-worthy divergence — one side is wrong.

How to use: Polymarket is a secondary confirmation layer, not a primary signal. It answers "what does money think?" — useful as a sanity check on our on-chain read. The raw watchlist is still available in the collapsible section below if you want to see individual contracts.

Composite thermometer for BTC blending valuation (MVRV, NUPL), momentum (price vs moving averages), derivatives (funding, OI), and on-chain activity into a single 0–100 score. 0 = capitulation, 100 = euphoric overheat.

Zones: 0–20 capitulation, 20–40 cool, 40–60 neutral, 60–80 warm, 80–100 overheat.

How to use it: a "warm/overheat" reading while Post-Halving Regime sits in distribution-danger is a late-cycle top warning. A "cool/capitulation" reading during the 900–1100 day bottom window is the most powerful accumulation signal we track. Expand components ▾ to see which inputs are driving the score.

The mirror of Tier 1. Tier 1 detects bottoms with zero false positives. This panel detects cycle tops using 6 distribution indicators backtested against the 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025 tops. Require 4/6 triggered for STRONG SELL conviction.

The 6 indicators:

AVIV > 2.0 — cointime valuation extreme (replaced MVRV-Z for post-ETF era)
NUPL > 0.55 — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss in euphoria zone
Puell Multiple > 4.0 — miner revenue overextended
MA Stack 4/4 — full bull technical regime (all MAs aligned)
Funding > +54% — extreme leveraged speculation (annualized)
Halving regime = late_markup or distribution_danger — inside the historical top window

How to use: 0-1/6 = no top risk. 2-3/6 = early warning, start trailing stops. 4+/6 = STRONG SELL — execute the Distribution Playbook below. Cross-check with composite gauge: if composite < -8 AND dist confluence >= 4, highest conviction sell signal the framework can produce.

Macro extension for Alts — applies the BTC Tier 1/2 frameworks, BMVZ, and Cycle metrics to ETH, SOL, and HYPE with recalibrated thresholds.

Public track record — every Daily Intel call is timestamped with 30/90/180d forward returns.

Probability-weighted catalyst overlay — tests multi-layer propagation scenarios.