Five decisions. Four evidence layers. One accountable read.

00Start here

One Bitcoin state, five decision views. Start with the verdict; open only evidence that can change it.

00bEvery panel: what it means and how to read it

Now · conclusion and confidence

Smart Alerts · retired into Since YesterdayFeeds · Bitcoin Now

Measures

Retired as a visible panel. Threshold crossings still exist as snapshot cards and now belong to Since Yesterday.

Read it

Use Since Yesterday for material changes. Do not treat the retired alert surface as a second decision owner.

Since YesterdayNow supporting · starts closed

Measures

The daily synthesis, its five decisions, material changes, opposing case, invalidation, and ranked day-over-day metric moves. Each move is a z-score against that metric’s own ~30-day delta history.

Read it

Open Supporting signals on Now after the Composite. Positive z means the level rose; negative z means it fell. |z| under 1 is normal noise; |z| ≥ 2 is unusual and matters only when a related receipt agrees. A quiet Delta Watch means no threshold crossed, not that refresh failed.

Changes the decision when

A decision or material driver differs from yesterday, or an unusual move persists with corroboration.

Do not trust when

Fewer than three metrics are available, the feed is older than 26 hours, the brief or underlying snapshot is not current, or provenance is missing.

Composite · Now primary, dial + verdictFeeds · Now

Measures

The Main Composite dial shows the signed −24 to +24 decision permission, while the attached Bitcoin Thermometer shows canonical 0–100 market heat in the same visible Now instrument. Horizon, ALIGNED chip, capital context, and gauge-probability sit in the closed evidence receipt.

Read it

Read the Main Composite first for posture, then the Bitcoin Thermometer for heat. The Thermometer is context, not a second verdict. Open the evidence receipt only when you need the trail.

Changes the decision when

The Composite crosses a verdict band; a heat move changes temperature context without independently changing the verdict.

Do not trust when

Composite status, cycle-daily freshness, coverage, agreement, or either numeric domain fails its receipt.

Market Compass · receipt on Macro PermissionFeeds · Macro

Measures

Six regime lenses: four forward (macro, capital flows, investor behaviour, on-chain fundamentals) plus cycle position and derivatives context. Not a standalone Macro panel — a closed receipt on Macro Permission.

Read it

Open Macro Permission, then the compass / regime radar receipt. Use the shape to see alignment and divergence. A broad outer shape means stronger conditions; a collapsed or lopsided shape means weak or conflicted conditions.

Changes the decision when

The balance of lenses shifts the market between risk-off, transition, and risk-on states.

Do not trust when

Too few lenses are live or one stale lens dominates the map.

Decision IntegrityNow supporting · starts closed

Measures

Source coverage, agreement, conflicts, freshness, thesis pillars, and invalidations across the evidence used by the main read.

Read it

The current Truth/data-quality/conflict receipt plus the current Bitcoin State thesis-pillar/invalidation artifact are the provenance boundary. High coverage plus agreement permits more trust; conflicts, weak pillars, or invalidations lower confidence.

Changes the decision when

Evidence quality or a thesis pillar changes the permission to trust the Composite verdict.

Do not trust when

You treat it as a separate buy/sell signal. It is a confidence brake: fail closed when either source receipt, provenance, or as-of is missing or stale; unavailable evidence stays unavailable.

Cycle · phase, temperature, and extremes

CW Risk Score · Cycle supporting, starts closedFeeds · Cycle

Measures

A normalized 0–1 cycle-temperature score. Values near 0 represent capitulation-like valuation; values near 1 represent euphoria-like valuation.

Read it

Cold favors patient accumulation context; hot raises distribution risk. Mid-range values are not actionable without trend and cycle phase.

Changes the decision when

The score enters a new risk band and its companion signals agree.

Do not trust when

Used as an exact top/bottom timer by itself.

Cowen Cycle Suite · receipt on Cycle PositionFeeds · Cycle

Measures

Seven complementary cycle reads covering time, long-run trend distance, realized valuation, miner economics, correction shape, cycle-relative return, and DCA seasonality.

Read it

Count directional agreement, then inspect dissenters. Four or more aligned reads create context; one clock never defines the cycle.

Changes the decision when

At least four live reads align in one direction.

Do not trust when

Fewer than four reads are available or the bundle is older than 26 hours. The power-law read is descriptive and uncalibrated; it is not intrinsic fair value or a price target.

Bottoming process · receipt on Cycle PositionFeeds · Cycle

Measures

The canonical bottoming process: current state, descriptive bottom proximity, six confirmation gates, four invalidations, and the 180-day likelihood publication receipt.

Read it

Open the Bottoming process receipt on Cycle Position. Read state first, then the X/6 confirmation score. Each gate is independently PASS (true now) or OPEN (still waiting). Proximity is historical similarity — not a probability or an exact-bottom forecast. Historical validation is a sibling receipt on Cycle Position, not a second fold inside Bottoming.

Changes the decision when

Confirmation gates pass, recovery becomes eligible by rule (typically reclaim of True Market Mean with at least three gates passed and no active invalidation), or an invalidation fires.

Do not trust when

The canonical receipt is unavailable, an invalidation is ACTIVE, or you treat 6/6 as a guaranteed low. Likelihood % stays dark until its own calibration receipt publishes.

PASS vs OPEN

PASS means that recovery check is currently true. OPEN means it is still waiting. A score like 2/6 means two conditions are true and four remain open — a progress bar for recovery evidence, not a win-rate or buy signal.

The six confirmation gates

Gate	What must be true
LTH stress cools	Long-term holder capitulation / loss thermometer is cooling or accumulating, not re-accelerating stress.
ETF dual-gate	ETF netflow stabilizes and activity is not muted relative to peak participation.
Reclaim STH cost basis	Spot is back above short-term holder average cost.
Reclaim True Market Mean	Spot is back above the active-investor “fair value” line.
Spot follow-through	The bounce looks like real spot demand, not only a derivatives unwind.
Options dual-read	Options positioning versus crash protection is not conflicted.

Do you need 6/6?

No. You do not need all six for the process to matter. Stronger recovery confirmation is roughly: right state (reclaim of True Market Mean) plus at least three gates passed and zero active invalidations. 6/6 is the strongest confluence stack — still not a guaranteed cycle low or a published likelihood percentage.

Invalidations (separate list)

Invalidations use ACTIVE / CLEAR. They answer whether the bottoming story is currently being broken (LTH stress re-accelerates, rejection toward Realized Price, ETF bleed resumes, crash-premium spike). An active invalidation weakens the process even if some confirmation gates pass.

Full methodology: Bottoming process (Cycle Position).

Retired · Cycle Top RadarFeeds · Cycle

Measures

A persistent Bitcoin distribution phase (NONE → EARLY → ACTIVE → EXHAUSTION → POST_TOP_CONFIRMATION) plus independently honesty-gated 30-, 90-, and 180-day terminal-top horizons. It does not predict an exact top price or date.

Read it

The panel is retired (2026-08-08); the versioned artifact still feeds the planned de-risk budget in Action and the morning brief, and the top-proximity story is carried by CW Risk. Read the distribution phase first. Terminal-top percentages appear only after held-out calibration, freshness, and provenance gates pass. “No current call” or unavailable horizons are not zero-risk readings.

Changes the decision when

The phase escalates or cools, a planned de-risk bucket becomes eligible, or a horizon becomes publishable after its gates clear.

Do not trust when

You treat phase as a guaranteed top, force a % while gates fail, or ignore post-ETF sample limits. Pre-ETF history does not auto-transfer.

Phase before probability

Distribution is a process. A terminal top is an event. They are never collapsed into one score. The live product keeps process/phase readable while numerical probabilities stay dark until publication gates pass (including enough strictly forward held-out cycle folds).

Planned de-risk budget (not execution)

When shown, the 20% / 50% / 30% split is a share of a user-declared de-risking budget (early distribution / valuation ladder / confirmed breakdown), labeled PLANNED / WAIT / ELIGIBLE — never automatic trade execution.

Full methodology: Cycle Top Radar.

Hot Capital · receipt on Cycle PositionFeeds · Cycle

Measures

Hot Capital Share (supply younger than three months from HODL wave bands) plus active supply unmoved for 1y+, 3y+, and 5y+, with a full age-band stack.

Read it

Low Hot Capital Share means old coins dominate (accumulation signature). High readings mean new speculative capital is elevated. Active supply 1y+ is HODL strength context, not a trade signal.

Changes the decision when

Hot Capital Share crosses a declared band (<13%, <16%, >20%, or >24%) for two or more consecutive prints.

Do not trust when

HODL waves or Hot Capital Share is unavailable or older than seven days, or when you treat descriptive bands as a bottom or top call.

Three-Layer Alignment · receipt on Cycle PositionFeeds · Cycle

Measures

Whether structure, capital flow, and derivatives positioning tell the same directional story.

Read it

All aligned raises conviction. Two versus one is partial confirmation. Mixed means wait for the dissenting layer to resolve.

Changes the decision when

All three layers align or a previously aligned state breaks.

Do not trust when

Fewer than two layers are live or the bundle is stale.

Cycle Position · primary, hero + phase barFeeds · Cycle

Measures

A four-stage gauge for the canonical categorical phase: Capitulation → Accumulation → Markup → Distribution.

Read it

Use the prominent phase label and current marker first. Bottoming, Cointime, Halving, value zone, LTH, Cowen, Hot Capital, and Three-Layer stay in closed receipts on this panel.

Changes the decision when

The canonical fresh cycle phase changes from one named stage to another.

Do not trust when

The cycle-daily receipt is stale, stalled, missing, or unknown. The categorical phase is not a probability or time forecast.

Money · who is buying and selling

Corporate Treasuries · receipt on LiquidityFeeds · Money

Measures

Known company, miner, ETF, and government Bitcoin holdings plus concentration and 30-day demand change.

Read it

Rising holdings support structural demand. Concentration above 50% increases entity-specific risk even if total holdings rise.

Changes the decision when

Thirty-day demand changes sign or concentration crosses its risk threshold.

Do not trust when

The holdings artifact is empty or older than seven days.

LTH → Exchange · receipt on Entity RegimeFeeds · Money

Measures

Seven-day average transfer volume from long-term holders to exchanges, split between coins moved in profit and at a loss.

Read it

Rising profit transfers suggest distribution. Rising loss transfers suggest stress or capitulation. Transfers are intent evidence, not proof of sale.

Changes the decision when

Loss transfers exceed 60% while total transfers rise, or sustained profit transfers accelerate.

Do not trust when

The split or total moving average is unavailable.

Supply Dynamics · receipt on Entity RegimeFeeds · Money

Measures

Illiquid and long-term-held supply trends, which estimate how much float is unavailable to trade.

Read it

Rising illiquid supply means absorption and tighter float. Falling illiquid supply means previously dormant supply is becoming available.

Changes the decision when

The trend reverses across two or more consecutive readings.

Do not trust when

The holder series is unavailable or older than seven days.

Liquidity & Capital · primaryFeeds · Money

Measures

A synthesis of ETF flows, deployable-liquidity pipeline, stablecoin and reserve flows, and holder absorption.

Read it

Positive and broad receipts mean capital is entering. A single positive component with quiet activity means weak participation, not full confirmation. Open 24h · 30d · context as a sibling receipt on Liquidity — not inside the ETF / pipeline receipt.

Changes the decision when

ETF, pipeline, and money-flow components align or materially diverge.

Do not trust when

Feeds are empty, stale, or use incompatible time windows.

Entity Regime · Money supporting, starts closedFeeds · Money

Measures

Who is driving supply and demand across the same windows: long-term-holder supply, 7-day and 30-day ETF flow, corporate treasuries, and broad entity accumulation.

Read it

Start with the alignment label, then read each participant. “Recovering” means short-term ETF flow improved while the 30-day total remains negative; “split” means CryptoWatch will not force false confluence.

Changes the decision when

A major cohort changes stance or the four participant windows become aligned.

Do not trust when

Coverage is missing, horizons are mixed without a label, or transfer activity is treated as confirmed selling.

Macro · permission and cross-asset context

Macro Permission · primaryFeeds · Macro

Measures

M2 growth, dollar strength, real yields, Fed liquidity, yield curve, credit spreads, and BTC's cross-asset relationship.

Read it

Expanding money and easier financial conditions grant permission to bullish crypto signals. Dollar, rate, or credit stress can cap them.

Changes the decision when

Money, dollar, rates, or credit cross a declared regime boundary.

Do not trust when

Monthly and daily inputs are compared without respecting freshness.

Capital Rotation · receipt on Macro PermissionFeeds · Macro

Measures

Bitcoin's 30-day and 90-day relative performance versus semiconductors, Nasdaq, gold, and other macro risk assets.

Read it

BTC leadership suggests crypto-specific demand. Broad risk assets leading BTC suggests capital is available but not yet rotating into Bitcoin.

Changes the decision when

Bitcoin leads or lags the comparison basket across both windows.

Do not trust when

Fewer than three benchmark legs are live.

Retired · Macro-Crypto Regime MatrixFeeds · Macro

Measures

A 3×3 intersection of liquidity: expanding, neutral, contracting; and crypto risk: risk-on, compression, risk-off.

Read it

The panel is retired (2026-08-08) — its history is degenerate (all NEUTRAL_COMPRESSION) and the regime story is carried by Macro Permission (compass / regime radar is a closed receipt); the backend matrix still feeds the morning brief. Expanding plus risk-on supports exposure; contracting plus risk-off demands defense.

Changes the decision when

The active matrix cell changes or three macro quadrants align.

Do not trust when

Fewer than three macro inputs are live.

Tail-Risk · receipt on Macro PermissionFeeds · Macro

Measures

Live source-backed structural risks such as miner fee security, custody concentration, and mining-pool concentration.

Read it

These are thesis risks, not daily trading signals. Watch direction, threshold proximity, source window, and whether several risks worsen together.

Changes the decision when

A tracked current metric rises above its declared watch threshold.

Do not trust when

The current timestamp is missing, a source is unavailable, or fewer than three current cards are returned.

Action · timing, execution, and accountability

BTC Setup · primaryFeeds · Action

Measures

A deterministic plan built from live cost-basis levels, position ladder, regime gates, risk limits, and historical base rates.

Read it

Read regime, allowed posture, entry ladder, invalidation, and sizing in that order. A withheld setup means the gates did not permit precision. Timing, DCA map, where valuation waits, institutional sizing, and the price chart are sibling receipts — one click each.

Changes the decision when

Price enters a declared zone while regime and risk gates permit exposure.

Do not trust when

Entry, stop, sizing, or the supporting snapshot is stale or withheld.

Timing rows · receipt on BTC SetupFeeds · Action

Measures

Four compact inputs: Funding, Options, Liquidations, and Contrarian. Each row reports state, one value or range, freshness, Action relevance, and invalidation or unavailable reason.

Read it

The layer synthesizes the four rows as ALIGNED, MIXED, or UNAVAILABLE. This is execution-timing evidence for the existing Action thesis, not a second trade recommendation.

Changes the decision when

Current rows align around crowding, squeeze, volatility, or liquidation risk strongly enough to change entry timing or patience.

Do not trust when

Required receipts are stale or missing, estimated liquidation zones are treated as measured orders, or a single derivatives input is used as a cycle call.

DCA MapAction receipt on BTC Setup

Measures

A research-only planning ladder anchored to Realized Price, LTH Realized Price, STH Cost Basis, True Market Mean, and cohort-cost levels, with reference shares by zone.

Read it

Existing provenance is the current DCA plan, BTC Setup, and price-level/candle/cost-basis receipts. The hybrid plan sits on the DCA map receipt. The zone ladder is the sibling “where valuation waits” receipt on BTC Setup — not nested inside the map. Use zones and price levels to understand cadence and dry-powder tradeoffs; deeper zones describe historical stress, not a promised rebound or portfolio weight.

Changes the decision when

A daily close crosses a referenced level or planning zone and the broader evidence changes with it.

Do not trust when

Fail closed and mark the map unavailable when a receipt, its source or as-of is missing or stale, a planned share is counted twice, or planning zones are treated as observed execution. CryptoWatch records no observed execution.

Cointime · receipt on Cycle PositionFeeds · Cycle

Measures

AVIV and liveliness, which weight valuation by economically active versus dormant coin supply.

Read it

Low AVIV suggests active-value compression; high AVIV suggests stretched valuation. Liveliness shows whether old supply is becoming active.

Changes the decision when

AVIV crosses 0.75 or 1.50 and liveliness agrees.

Do not trust when

AVIV or active-value inputs are missing or stale.

Track Record · ProofFeeds · Proof

Measures

Resolved directional calls plus a separate daily receipt trail for every on-chain evidence family: observation count, state changes, persistence, regime, and later 7/30/90-day price context.

Read it

Use forecast calibration for actual calls. Use interpretation receipts to verify what the evidence said and when it changed. Forward returns beside descriptive states are context—not forecast wins.

Changes the decision when

A call resolves, or a daily evidence family changes state enough to alter the five-decision synthesis.

Do not trust when

Descriptive state receipts are mislabeled as price predictions, or small samples are presented as proven reliability.

00About CryptoWatch

Macro — The Bitcoin Macro Cockpit

Macro is organized as five Decision Canvases — Now · Cycle · Money · Macro · Action — with 10 visible owners: five primary, 4 supporting, and one Proof / Accountability utility. Each canvas keeps one primary answer above its supporting evidence, and every conclusion has one visible owner. Supporting signals start closed. Bitcoin State holds the complete thesis; Macro keeps each decision concise. Decision Integrity remains the Now trust brake; CW Risk remains the Cycle valuation thermometer. Bottoming, Cointime, LTH→exchange, treasuries, Compass, tail-risk, timing rows, and DCA live as closed receipts on those owners.

Macro shows what the data says, where the data disagrees, and what a disciplined allocator can do with that read. The Bottoming process receipt on Cycle Position owns the bottoming read; CW Risk carries the top-proximity story — without claiming exact bottoms or tops.

Why we built this

Because the tools that exist are either raw data dumps (on-chain analytics platforms, exchange-flow services — here's 200 charts, figure it out) or black-box signals (pay us, trust us, we'll tell you when to buy). Neither respects how a thoughtful trader actually makes decisions.

A real cycle decision requires checking macro liquidity, cycle timing, on-chain stress, derivatives positioning, institutional flows, and sentiment — simultaneously. No single data source covers all of them. We wanted one screen that does, with a framework that explains exactly how each signal contributes to the verdict.

Why we're different

• Scored inputsEach input is evaluated against declared rules.
• Declared weightsWeighting logic is published and version controlled.
• ConfidenceEach decision shows agreement and coverage.
• InvalidationEach read states what would change it.
• Public track recordCalls and resolutions remain inspectable.

Our specialty

Macro: Cycle intelligence, not day-trading signals. Built for the question "where are we in the 4-year BTC cycle?" and its practical follow-ups: should I be accumulating, holding, or distributing? At what size? With what conviction?

Mission

Make cycle intelligence and narrative alpha accessible. The data that drives billion-dollar fund decisions should be readable by anyone with 5 minutes a day and a browser.

Vision

A world where no retail crypto investor gets caught on the wrong side of a cycle turn — or chases a narrative peak — because they didn't have access to the right data in the right format at the right time.

01What this is

cryptowatch.id is a live BTC intelligence layer: Bitcoin State for the complete thesis, Macro for five daily decisions, and Track Record / Ledger for accountability. The composite gauge still synthesizes macro, cycle, on-chain, and derivatives evidence into a signed verdict band — while cycle extremes are process-first (Cycle Position bottoming receipt / CW Risk top-proximity) and fail closed on uncalibrated percentages.

The dashboard exists because most "crypto dashboards" pick one lens (just on-chain, just TA, just sentiment) and miss the rest. Real cycle turns happen when macro, cycle position, on-chain cohort behavior, and derivatives positioning all line up. We wanted a single surface that shows whether they do.

Every number on the dashboard is computed live from primary sources. Nothing is hand-entered. Nothing is hardcoded. If the backend pipeline goes down, the number goes stale and the UI says so.

02How to use the dashboard

A 6-step session workflow. Open the dashboard, go through these in order. Each step narrows the evidence behind the five decisions and shows whether the current posture has support, conflict, or no edge.

Step 1 · Read the composite verdict (SIGNAL)

The first thing you see. The gauge sums 21 signed scores into a single number from −24 to +24 and maps it to one of 7 verdict bands. Read two things:

• Verdict + score. "MILD BUY +7" means conditions lean bullish but conviction is partial.
• Confidence %. If it's above 80%, indicators agree. If it's below 60%, the total is being driven by a few strong signals while the rest disagree — treat the posture as lower-confidence.

If the verdict is WAIT (score −2 to +1), the evidence has no directional edge. Review the conflicts and invalidation conditions instead of forcing a conclusion.

Step 2 · Check L4 Positioning & Timing first (BTC Setup timing rows)

L4 is the trigger layer. It tells you whether the derivatives market is already crowded in one direction. Open the Timing rows receipt on BTC Setup (Funding, Options, Liquidations, Contrarian). This matters more than anything else for timing, because extreme positioning resolves in 1-4 weeks, not months.

• Funding < −54% annualized → shorts are overloaded. Contrarian long setup in place.
• Funding > +54% annualized → longs are overloaded. Contrarian short / top warning.
• DVOL > 90 → panic priced in. Historically coincides with bottoms.
• IV term backwardation → immediate fear priced in. 2020 COVID, 2022 FTX both had it at the low.

Step 3 · Verify with L3 On-Chain (TIER 1 + TIER 2)

L3 is the cohort layer. It answers: "is the on-chain population actually at a stress point, or is this just derivatives noise?" Classic Tier 1 confluence still informs scoring; the live confirmation count is the Bottoming process receipt on Cycle Position.

• 0/4 Tier 1 → no confirmed bottom; on-chain stress does not support a bottom call.
• 1-2/4 Tier 1 → partial stress evidence; watch for the next independent confirmation.
• 3-4/4 Tier 1 → strong historical on-chain confluence, but not proof that the current cycle low is in.

Tier 2 is the confirming layer — softer triggers like LTH MVRV < 1, US Spot Premium positive, Liveliness falling. Tier 2 alone does not establish a bottom; it raises the priority of watching the Tier 1 confirmation gates.

Step 4 · Check L2 Cycle Position (CYCLE)

L2 is the slow map. It won't change between sessions — that's the point. Read:

• AVIV Ratio — where we sit in the post-ETF valuation band. <0.75 is historically extreme undervaluation.
• MA Stack Regime Score — 0/4 or 1/4 confirms bear regime. 4/4 confirms full bull.
• Halving regime — what phase the time-based calendar says we're in. If L2 says "late bear" and L3 says Tier 1 fires, conviction doubles.
• Bottom Proximity composite — descriptive stress/cheapness orientation (not a probability).
• Bottoming process (Cycle Position receipt) — bottoming state, X/6 PASS/OPEN confirmation gates, invalidations, likelihood receipt.
• CW Risk (Cycle supporting, starts closed) — carries the top-proximity read from the retained distribution artifact: distribution phase first; horizon probabilities only when publication gates pass.

Step 5 · Check L1 Macro permission (L1 MACRO)

L1 is the override layer. If macro is hostile, even extreme undervaluation can get cheaper. Read:

• M2 YoY > +3% → liquidity expanding; macro is supportive of crypto-native signals.
• M2 YoY < −2% → liquidity contracting; downgrade bullish evidence even when on-chain conditions look cheap.
• DXY +5% over 3m → dollar strengthening; require more confirmation before treating a bullish setup as durable.
• BTC-SPX 30d correlation high → macro dominates. Watch equities for direction.

2022 is the textbook reason L1 exists. On-chain looked "cheap" for 6 months while DXY rallied 20% and BTC fell another 40%. L1 kept the bullish evidence qualified until the macro headwind eased.

Step 6 · Interpret DCA zones (BTC Setup receipts)

On BTC Setup, open the sibling receipts separately. The DCA map holds the hybrid plan. The zone ladder is “where valuation waits.” Institutional sizing is its own receipt. Zones are planning context, not instructions or observed execution:

• Use the zones to understand where price sits relative to the cost-basis ladder.
• Deeper zones describe progressively more stressed historical conditions; they do not prescribe a tranche or portfolio weight.
• When the Bottoming process shows 3+ gates PASS inside Zone C or D, treat it as strong bottom-candidate evidence; wait for recovery confirmation before calling the cycle low.

02bDecision and evidence contracts

Context earns dashboard space only when it names the verdict it feeds, the threshold that can change that verdict, its invalidation condition, and its freshness boundary.

How to read a decision-contract rail

Supporting Macro evidence receipts begin with the same four fields: Feeds names the primary decision owner; Role explains whether the evidence confirms, times, filters, or executes that decision; Changes read when states the measurable escalation threshold; and Invalid if states when the evidence must be ignored. The current synthesis line remains the live read; the rail is the stable methodology contract.

Machine-readable evidence services

The five former public evidence services (intraday delta, social emergence, mindshare, OSINT health, daily debate) were retired on 2026-07-15 with their Tier-C producer stack. They are not part of the current public contract.

03Four evidence questions behind five decisions

The framework asks four evidence questions across Macro, Cycle, On-Chain, and Execution. The Observatory synthesizes those answers into five user decisions: Now, Cycle, Money, Macro, and Action. Bitcoin State reconnects them into one complete thesis.

These four evidence layers are read in sequence when signals conflict:

1. L1 wins overrides. Hostile macro caps any bullish call, no matter how strong L2-L4 are.
2. L2 defines the playbook. L3/L4 are read differently depending on cycle phase.
3. L3 provides the evidence. Without L3 confirmation, L4 alone is just "crowded positioning" — not a bottom call.
4. L4 provides the timing. When L2 and L3 both say yes, L4 is what you watch for the entry trigger.

Walk-forward validation note

Cycle extrema are evaluated one canonical top and bottom per Bitcoin cycle. Adaptive thresholds use only observations strictly before each scored date. Missing historical feeds are excluded from the denominator, and distinct false-alarm episodes are reported outside the event windows.

The current receipt covers three pre/post-ETF cycle tops and three pre-ETF bottoms. There is only one completed post-ETF top and no completed post-ETF bottom, so both engines remain calibrated=false. The current bottom is a live candidate and the first post-ETF bottom validation sample—not a backtest win.

04The 4 evidence layers behind 5 decisions

The five public decisions — Now, Cycle, Money, Macro, and Action — sit above four evidence layers. Each layer answers a different question and contributes signed scores to the composite; the layers are evidence organization, not a second navigation system.

L1 · Macro Regime

Question: is the global environment supportive of risk assets, or is it pulling capital out?

Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum. When the US dollar strengthens and global liquidity contracts, even a perfect on-chain setup struggles. When M2 is expanding and DXY is rolling over, the same on-chain setup becomes a launchpad. L1 is the permission slip.

Signals: US M2 year-over-year · DXY 3-month change · BTC–SPX 30-day correlation regime.

L2 · Cycle Position

Question: where are we in the 4-year Bitcoin cycle — capitulation, accumulation, markup, or distribution?

Cycle position is the slow-moving map underneath everything else. It blends time-based features (halving framework), technical regime (weekly MA stack), valuation (AVIV Ratio from Cointime Economics), and composite bottom-proximity scoring. This layer is what separates a "dip" from a "bottom" and a "pullback" from a "top."

Signals: MA Stack Regime Score · AVIV Ratio · Halving regime · Bottom proximity composite · Drawdown from ATH.

L3 · On-Chain Stress

Question: is the on-chain population under stress, taking profits, or still distributing?

L3 is the cohort layer. It reads what long-term holders and short-term holders are actually doing on-chain, separates them by age, measures profit/loss behavior, and tracks institutional flow through spot ETF activity and US spot premium. This layer catches real bottoms before price does.

Signals: Zero-FP Tier 1 confluence · LTH MVRV · STH MVRV · Liveliness / Vaultedness · Realized Loss · US Spot Premium · IBIT activity multiplier · LTH SOPR.

L4 · Positioning & Timing

Question: is now the actual moment — is derivatives positioning primed to squeeze, or is the crowd already one-sided?

L3 can say "bottoming evidence is building." L4 asks whether shorts are crowded and volatility is stressed now. It contributes timing evidence; CryptoWatch does not place or observe trades.

Signals: BTC funding annualized · DVOL · IV term structure shape · 25Δ skew proxy · OI / market cap.

06The composite gauge

Every indicator contributes a signed score in the range −2 to +2 by default. After layer-strength multipliers (see "Multipliers and bounds" below) the per-indicator score is clamped to ±3. Quality-weighted L1–L4 rows sum on a fixed 21-slot universe; the display total maps to one of seven verdict bands on a ±24 scale.

The scoring convention

+2 = strongly bullish (extreme undervaluation, capitulation, panic, or crowded short positioning).
+1 = mildly bullish (undervalued or supportive).
0 = neutral / no signal.
−1 = mildly bearish (overvalued or stretched).
−2 = strongly bearish (euphoric distribution, crowded long positioning, or extreme complacency).

Multipliers and bounds (Round 2 audit clarification, 2026-05-03)

The naive sum of 21 × ±2 would be ±42. The dashboard caps the displayed total at ±24 via two mechanisms:

• Per-indicator post-multiplier clamp at ±3. BTC–SPX correlation smoothly reweights L1 vs L3 (and freshness can downweight a layer). The boosted score is half-rounded then clamped to ±3. Reference: composite_score.py / FE buildCompositeScore.
• v2 quality weights (default). Cycle anchors (e.g. AVIV) ×1.5, macro regime ×1.2, short-horizon noise (funding/IV/OI) ×0.7; equal-weight v1 remains via ?weights=v1.
• ±24 display scale. Verdict bands use the same edges as Truth Engine (composite_verdict.py). The ±24 range is a bounded synthesis convention — not a calibrated probability scale.
• Conflict clamp. High-severity Truth Engine conflicts step the posture one band toward WAIT and cut confidence (soft clamp, not a hard veto).

Verdict bands

Confidence

Alongside the score, the gauge shows a confidence percentage built from a fixed 21-indicator universe:

• 60% coverage — present rows ÷ 21 (missing feeds reduce confidence even when every live row has data).
• 40% directional agreement — of present rows with non-zero score, the fraction scoring the same sign as the displayed total.

A +8 score with 90% confidence means "most indicators agree and most of the expected slots are live." A +8 score with 55% confidence means "the total is being driven by a thinner or more conflicted set of signals."

What the gauge is not

07Confluence decision rules

The gauge is the one-number summary. These rules explain how evidence changes the five-decision posture when layers agree or conflict. They do not prescribe allocation or execute trades.

When layers agree — conviction rises, confirmation still matters

All four layers aligned is the strongest evidence state in the framework, but it is not unambiguous and does not prescribe position size. Apply the current cycle state, invalidation, and your own risk plan.

When L4 conflicts with L2+L3 — timing remains unconfirmed

The most common edge case: on-chain and cycle position suggest a possible accumulation zone, but derivatives positioning does not confirm the timing. The composite should stay cautious until that conflict resolves.

When L1 is hostile — macro can dominate the read

Macro headwind delays even extreme undervaluation. This is the hardest rule to follow emotionally because on-chain will be screaming "cheap" while price keeps dropping.

Layer priority hierarchy

05Framework design rationale

Why 21 indicators and not 10. Why ±2 scoring and not raw values. Why some indicators are symmetric and some aren't. Why the verdict bands land at ±16 and ±8. These are not arbitrary choices — they're deliberate decisions with backtest rationale.

Why 21 indicators

The framework needs to cover 4 independent dimensions (macro, cycle, on-chain, positioning and timing) without missing signal and without becoming noise. We landed on 21 after testing configurations from 8 to 35. The distribution:

• 3 macro (M2, DXY, BTC-SPX correlation) — thin, because macro signals move slowly. More macro indicators adds redundancy without signal. 3 is enough to detect the regime.
• 5 cycle (MA Stack, AVIV, Halving regime, Bottom Proximity, Drawdown) — our highest-credit layer. Each indicator uses a different methodology (technical / valuation / time-based / composite / price) so they're uncorrelated enough that all 5 contribute independent signal.
• 8 on-chain (Tier 1 confluence, LTH MVRV, STH MVRV, Liveliness, Realized Loss, US Spot Premium, IBIT activity, LTH SOPR) — biggest layer because on-chain is BTC's native data advantage. We want cohort behavior, valuation, miner stress, institutional flow, and profit-taking dynamics all covered.
• 5 execution (Funding, DVOL, IV term, 25Δ skew, OI/Mcap) — enough to capture derivatives positioning without making L4 dominate.

Fewer than 21 leaves blind spots. In testing, 15-indicator versions consistently missed either miner capitulation signals or IV term structure reversals. More than 21 crosses into diminishing returns — each additional indicator contributes less signal while adding correlated noise and computation load. 21 is where backtest accuracy plateaus.

Why ±2 scoring instead of raw values

Every indicator uses different units. M2 YoY is a percentage. MVRV is a dimensionless ratio. Realized Loss is dollars per day. Funding is an annualized percentage. You can't sum them directly. A normalized score per indicator (−2 extreme bearish to +2 extreme bullish, 0 neutral) makes them addable and comparable.

Why specifically ±2 and not ±1 or ±3?

• ±1 is too coarse. Only 3 states per indicator (bearish / neutral / bullish). Loses the "extreme" signal that is exactly what we care about at cycle turns.
• ±2 gives 5 states: extreme bearish, mildly bearish, neutral, mildly bullish, extreme bullish. This matches how humans naturally categorize conditions. "Cold, cool, mild, warm, hot" is the psychological template.
• ±3 or more over-weights noisy indicators. Funding can move 100% in a single day. Rewarding it +3 for a temporary spike would let it dominate the composite. The ±2 cap keeps any single indicator from owning more than ~8% of the theoretical range.

Why some indicators are asymmetric

Not every indicator scores symmetrically. Some push harder in one direction than the other. These aren't bugs — they're deliberate.

How the verdict bands were checked

The 7 bands (−24 to +24) are heuristic action bands replayed against historical cycle extremes. They are not statistically calibrated probabilities. Cycle top/bottom claims use the separate walk-forward event receipt, including coverage and false alarms.

±16 is the strongest confluence band, ±8 is the "conviction grows" line, and ±2 is the noise floor. These are decision conventions, not a claim of >80% precision.

08Indicator reference

Every scored indicator, in order, with its endpoint, logic, and scoring bands. This is the full source-of-truth for what the dashboard is computing.

L1 · Macro Regime

L2 · Cycle Position

L3 · On-Chain Stress

L4 · Positioning & Timing

09How the Market Heat thermometer works

The heat thermometer is a separate composite from the ±24 gauge. Where the gauge outputs a verdict, the thermometer outputs a 0-100 temperature. They measure different things. This section explains what it is, what it blends, and when it diverges from the main gauge.

What the thermometer measures

The thermometer is a valuation + positioning state, not a directional signal. It answers the question "how stretched is the market right now?" on a scale from frozen (0) to overheated (100). The gauge answers "is the setup bullish or bearish?" The two are related but not identical.

Think of it this way: the gauge is a verdict, the thermometer is a pressure reading. A neutral gauge (WAIT) can coexist with a very high or very low thermometer reading — the gauge is waiting for confluence, but the thermometer is already telling you the market is tightly wound one way or the other.

Components and weights

The thermometer blends four subscores, each normalized 0-100:

• Valuation (35% weight) — MVRV ratio, NUPL, Puell Multiple, Supply-in-Profit. Maps "how far above realized price are we?"
• Momentum (25% weight) — BTC vs 20w/50w/100w/200w MAs, weekly RSI, 30d price change. Maps "how stretched is trend?"
• Derivatives (25% weight) — annualized funding rate, OI/market-cap ratio, 25Δ skew. Maps "how leveraged is positioning?"
• Activity (15% weight) — active addresses, transaction volume, realized cap velocity, US spot premium. Maps "how engaged is the user base?"

Reading the zones

When the thermometer diverges from the gauge

Divergences are signal, not noise. The two most common patterns:

Warm thermometer + MILD BUY gauge

The market is stretched but indicators disagree on direction. Usually means momentum and derivatives are frothy while on-chain hasn't confirmed distribution yet. Read: don't add new longs, trail stops on existing. The thermometer is warning about a pullback the gauge hasn't seen yet.

Cool thermometer + WAIT gauge

The market is cold but the framework isn't calling a bottom. This is the classic "early is indistinguishable from wrong" zone. Valuation is attractive, derivatives are clean, but Tier 1 hasn't triggered and AVIV hasn't hit accumulation territory. Read: stay patient. The thermometer is showing the setup is building, but the gauge needs evidence of actual cohort stress before it signals buy.

10Reading cycle patterns

BTC's 4-year halving cycle has been the most predictive structural rhythm in the asset's history. This section explains the rhythm, the typical phase durations, the diminishing extremes thesis, and how to spot which phase you're currently in.

The 4-phase rhythm

Every halving cycle since 2012 has followed the same structural sequence, though the amplitudes have changed. A full cycle is ~1,460 days (4 years) post-halving, divided into:

The diminishing extremes thesis

Each successive cycle has had shallower extremes than the last. This is not a bug — it's maturation. Lower volatility at cycle turns is what institutional adoption looks like.

Prior cycles show diminishing extremes, but the sequence is too small to assume a fixed decay curve. CryptoWatch treats it as context and uses trailing cycle-relative ranks plus unchanged legacy cross-checks.

The implication is not that old extremes can never recur. It is that an adaptive model should recognize structural change without moving thresholds after seeing the answer. Bottom states therefore require cost-basis context, confluence, and later recovery confirmation.

Spotting which phase you're in

Three fast reads:

1. Days post-halving — open the Halving receipt on Cycle Position. Time alone puts you in a ±3 month window.
2. MA Stack score — 4/4 = markup/distribution. 0/4 = late bear. 1-2/4 = early bear or early markup. 3/4 = mid bull.
3. AVIV Ratio — >2.5 = distribution. 1.5-2.5 = bull. 1.0-1.5 = mid. 0.75-1.0 = accumulation. <0.75 = deep value.

When all three agree on a phase, you know where you are. When they disagree, check the Halving regime calendar — time-based context usually wins in the disagreement (history teaches that cycle timing is more reliable than cycle magnitude).

11Bottoming process · process, not price

CryptoWatch does not publish an exact bottom price or date. The live Cycle surface answers whether the bottoming process is active, which recovery checks have already passed, and what would break the story. The product surface is the Bottoming process receipt on Cycle Position; this page is the methodology.

PASS vs OPEN

Each of the six confirmation gates is labeled independently:

A headline like 2/6 means two conditions passed, four remain open. It is a progress bar for recovery evidence — not “20% chance of a bottom,” not a recommended allocation fraction, and not a buy timer.

The six confirmation gates

Do you need 6/6? What does recovery confirmed mean?

You do not need 6/6 for the process to be useful.

• Low count (about 0–2) while deep / cooling — early process; recovery not confirmed.
• Mid count (about 3+) with reclaim-type states — more constructive; still watch invalidations.
• Recovery confirmed (product bias) — roughly when state is reclaim of True Market Mean, at least three confirmation gates pass, and invalidations are clear. That is the stronger process milestone, not a promise of the cycle low.
• 6/6 PASS with 0 invalidations ACTIVE — strongest current confluence of those six checks. Still not a guaranteed bottom price or date.

The hybrid DCA confirmation reserve (30% of planned accumulation budget) also waits for recovery confirmation with no active invalidation — it does not wait for a literal 6/6 score alone.

Invalidations (ACTIVE / CLEAR)

Invalidations are a separate checklist from confirmation. Labels:

• ACTIVE — this break condition is firing now.
• CLEAR — this break condition is not currently firing.

Descriptive proximity vs likelihood %

• Descriptive proximity — how similar current conditions look to historical bottoming setups on a 0–100 stress/cheapness axis. Orientation only.
• 180-day likelihood range — publishes only when historical walk-forward gates pass and post-ETF transfer is not falsely claimed. Otherwise it stays UNAVAILABLE by design.

Supporting calendar and classic confluence (context, not a second radar)

Halving-day windows and classic Tier-1 style confluence (MVRV, NUPL, Puell, supply-in-profit) still inform Cycle Position, the composite gauge, and historical checklists below. They do not replace the Bottoming process gates on Cycle Position. After the 2024 spot-ETF structural change, pre-ETF thresholds alone cannot claim validated transfer to the current regime.

• Last halving: April 20, 2024
• Historical deep-bear window (calendar context only): roughly day 930–980 post-halving
• Use: time context for patience — never as a single-date bottom call

12Cycle Top Radar · distribution process, not a date

Tops are harder than bottoms because distribution is slow. The standalone Cycle Top Radar panel is retired (2026-08-08) — its versioned artifact stays live and drives a persistent distribution phase, optional honesty-gated terminal-top horizons, and the planned de-risk budget in Action, while the top-proximity story is carried by CW Risk. It does not promise the exact top print.

Distribution phase first

Evidence is grouped into bounded families (valuation, owner distribution, demand/flows, leverage, price structure, cycle timing, macro context) so correlated copies of the same fact cannot manufacture confidence.

30 / 90 / 180-day probabilities stay dark until gates pass

Horizon probabilities are calibrated independently and publish only when every declared gate passes (including enough strictly forward held-out completed-cycle folds, skill vs base rate, calibration error, coverage, and current-input authority). Failed horizons return unavailable with failed-gate codes — the UI never substitutes an unvalidated historical frequency and calls it probability.

Planned de-risk budget (20 / 50 / 30)

When shown, percentages are shares of a user-declared de-risking budget:

• 20% early-distribution participation — only after EARLY persists
• 50% valuation / exhaustion ladder — adaptive observation zones, not predicted top prices
• 30% confirmed-breakdown reserve — only at POST_TOP_CONFIRMATION

Labels are PLANNED / WAIT / ELIGIBLE. CryptoWatch does not mark EXECUTED without a separate user-owned execution system (out of scope).

Supporting calendar context

• Last halving: April 20, 2024
• Historical top window: about day 480–560 post-halving
• This-cycle local high (for context): 2025-10-06 near day 534 post-halving — inside the historical window, not a claim that distribution is finished forever

Classic distribution checklists (AVIV, NUPL, LTH SOPR, funding, OI/mcap) remain useful as family evidence and composite inputs. The authoritative product read is phase + gates from the retained distribution artifact — surfaced through CW Risk and the Action de-risk budget, not a standalone retired “scorecard” panel.

13Case studies

Four full post-mortems: the 2022 cycle bottom with its June false signal, the 2018 bottom, the 2015 bottom, and the 2025 top. Each one shows the framework's reading evolving through the turn so you can see what confluence looks like in practice.

Case 1 · 2022 bottom (with the June false signal)

The 2022 cycle bottom is the single most instructive case in BTC history because it included a clear false signal 5 months before the real bottom. The framework's confluence requirement is what separated them.

June 2022 — the false signal

The temptation: "MVRV is below 1! Historical bottom signal!" The framework: "Only 1 of 4 Tier 1 signals fired. Not confluence. Wait."

What happened next: Price fell from $18,500 to $15,476 by November 21. Another −17% for anyone who bought the false signal.

November 2022 — the real bottom

All 4 Tier 1 signals fired simultaneously. L4 at max contrarian setup. L2 at max bear confluence. L1 neutral (M2 had stabilized). Composite +17 — the framework's maximum historical reading.

What happened next: BTC rallied from $15,479 to $73,000 over the next 14 months (+370%). The framework called it within 2 days of the price low.

The lesson

Case 2 · 2018 bottom

2018's bottom was cleaner than 2022 — no notable false signal, no macro headwind, just a long grinding bear that resolved in December.

Day 952 post-halving (July 2016 halving + 952 days). Right inside the historical 930-980 window.

What happened next: BTC rallied to $13,800 over 6 months (+330%), then retraced in a mid-cycle dip before continuing to the 2021 top.

Case 3 · 2015 bottom

The earliest backtest anchor. Halving was in November 2012, so the 2015 bottom at day 974 aligns perfectly with the pattern.

What happened next: +20× in 35 months (to $20,000 at the 2017 top).

Case 4 · 2025 cycle top

The most recent data point. The framework called the top within one week — but with a lower composite score than prior cycles because extremes have been diminishing.

September 2025 — first warnings

October 6, 2025 — the ATH

The diminishing extremes caveat

What happened next: BTC fell from $124,714 to $74,339 by April 2026 (−40.3%). Anyone following the distribution playbook who scaled out 20-30-40 across MILD SELL → SELL → STRONG SELL would have captured ~$112K-$118K average exit price.

14The 155-day cohort convention

This section exists because it keeps causing confusion: how do "LTH MVRV" and "STH MVRV" actually get computed, and why does the endpoint name look backwards?

On-chain analytics naming rule

Every on-chain analytics cohort metric uses the suffix _less_155 or _more_155. The suffix refers to the age of the coins included in the calculation, not the count of coins or anything else:

• _less_155 = coins held less than 155 days = Short-Term Holder cohort (STH)
• _more_155 = coins held more than 155 days = Long-Term Holder cohort (LTH)

So market/mvrv_less_155 is the MVRV ratio computed using only coins that have been held fewer than 155 days — that's the STH cohort, and in CryptoWatch Macro it displays as STH MVRV. Conversely market/mvrv_more_155 is LTH MVRV.

Why 155 days

The 155-day threshold comes from on-chain analytics Realized HODL Ratio research and was formalized in the ARK Invest × on-chain analytics Cointime Economics paper (August 2023). It's the statistical point at which a coin's behavior transitions from short-term-holder-like (volatile, responsive to price) to long-term-holder-like (dormant, price-insensitive). The same threshold shows up in supply/lth_sum and supply/sth_sum with the cohort names spelled out explicitly — the on-chain analytics feed considers _more_155 synonymous with "LTH" and _less_155 synonymous with "STH" across the entire catalog.

The economic sanity check

If the labels were ever swapped, the numbers would be mathematically impossible given the current price. Consider a world where BTC is trading below the prior cycle's ATH:

• LTHs bought during the prior bear market and early markup — their average cost basis is far below current price, so LTH MVRV should read well above 1.0.
• STHs bought recently, often near the ATH — their average cost basis can be above current price, so STH MVRV can drop below 1.0.

If LTH MVRV ever appears to drop below 1.0, that's a genuine signal — it means even the patient long-term cohort is now underwater, which historically only happens at the deepest capitulation lows (2015, 2018-12, 2022-11). If STH MVRV ever prints above LTH MVRV, something is wrong.

Framework neutrality verification (v2 #18)

Audit v2 #18 questioned whether the framework is structurally bullish-biased. We ran the simplified composite backwards across the full on-chain analytics history (2010-2026, 5,751 daily rows) to measure the actual average composite per year.

Result: full-period average = −0.285 (median 0). The framework is empirically neutral. Per-year peaks align correctly with past cycle turns: 2015 avg +8.49 (bottom year), 2017 −7.38 (top), 2022 +5.27 (bottom), 2025 −4.08 (ATH year).

Effective range (audit v2 #3): STRONG BUY (≥+16) and STRONG SELL (≤−16) were never hit in 11 years. Practical range was ~−12 to +14. These are descriptive action bands, not calibrated probabilities or cycle-turn guarantees.

Band distribution (full period): SELL 7.1% · MILD SELL 28.5% · WAIT 29.0% · MILD BUY 23.3% · BUY 12.1%. Sell-side 35.6% / buy-side 35.4% — within 0.2 percentage points of symmetric.

Verification script: verify_bias.py. Re-run after any scorer change. Last run 2026-04-15.

15Historical validation

Offline historical replays show how the framework scored confirmed cycle extremes. These research results are documented here; the live dashboard does not currently offer an interactive historical mode.

These results are research backtests, not a stored reconstruction of the full dashboard. Use them as methodology context and judge live calls through the public Track Record.

Equity Curve backtest

The Equity Curve panel tests whether the composite signal can produce a strategy curve, not just good-looking labels at cycle turns. It compares conviction, mild, buy-and-hold, and DCA baselines with drawdown and Sharpe context.

Layer Correlation Matrix

The Layer Correlation Matrix checks whether L1, L2, L3, and L4 are still independent. Low cross-layer correlation means the composite is combining distinct evidence; high correlation means the dashboard may be reading the same market force several times.

16Retired · Market Pulse Scorecard

The 7-category Market Pulse Scorecard was retired (consolidated 2026-06). It is no longer an active Macro panel and must not be used as a live decision surface.

Historical mentions of “Market Pulse” elsewhere on this page are methodology archaeology only.

17Cohort framework (LTH · ETF)

Post-ETF, structural BTC flow is no longer a single-cohort question. The Macro cohort framework now uses two owned lenses: on-chain Long-Term Holders (LTH) and TradFi institutional demand via US spot BTC ETFs. Retired wallet-label feeds are excluded from this panel's scoring.

Liquidity & Capital panel

The Macro Liquidity & Capital panel is the dashboard's consolidated dollar-flow read. It groups ETF demand, stablecoin supply change, and cross-market crypto money-flow rotation into one question: is fresh capital entering, leaving, or rotating inside the market?

The 2 cohorts compared

Institutional Pulse

Institutional Pulse compresses leverage, exchange-supply, and ETF-demand evidence into a 3-lens structural-bid check. It is meant to answer whether the current BTC bid has real spot support or is mostly leverage-led and fragile.

16.1 · LTH Behavior Tracker

The LTH Tracker panel classifies the LTH cohort into one of 6 phases based on 30-day net position change and SOPR:

LTH Net Position Change is the canonical accumulation/distribution metric. Positive 30d = cohort net growing = more STH coins aging into LTH than LTH coins being sold = accumulation. Negative = distribution.

The panel shows a 90-day supply sparkline, 1d/7d/30d/90d deltas, a 5-metric grid (Supply, In Loss %, SOPR, MVRV, NUPL), the current phase classification with historical context, and a validation table running the classifier retroactively against all past cycle inflections so you can verify it calls the right signals at the right times.

16.2 · Owned cohort alignment input

The Composite conflict resolver reads both owned cohort stances (LTH from the tracker above, ETF from the owned ETF ledger) and computes an internal alignment confidence:

• HIGHEST · 2/2 aligned — rarest, highest-signal configuration under the owned-source framework. LTH behavior and ETF flow agree on direction.
• LOW · 1/2 split — LTH and ETF disagree or one is neutral. No directional signal. Wait for resolution.
• PARTIAL · 1/2 available — one owned feed is missing or stale, so the resolver withholds conviction.

This is a retained scoring input, not a standalone panel. Its evidence is shown through Entity Regime, the Cycle Position LTH receipt, Liquidity ETF receipts, and the Composite conflict chip (inside the evidence receipt).

16.3 · Capital Pipeline

Consolidated "is money flowing INTO or OUT OF crypto?" composite. Only two flows count as true dollar-in/dollar-out events:

1. Stablecoin Supply Δ (USDT + USDC) — mint/burn at the issuer. 1:1 dollar wrapping/unwrapping.
2. US Spot BTC ETF Net Flows — creation/redemption via AP. 1:1 dollar conversion to BTC custody.

Composite = Stablecoin Δ + ETF Flow over 24h / 7d / 30d windows. Shown as a big hero number (the 7d composite) with direction ("capital flowing INTO crypto" / "flowing OUT" / "flat") and 3 time-horizon columns. Context rows below the composite show Futures OI Δ and BTC Exchange Reserve Δ as separate orthogonal signals (not summed into composite because OI mixes dollar + coin margin and exchange reserve is coin custody not dollar flow).

This panel answers one question: "Did new dollars enter crypto this week?" Most serious analysts use stablecoin supply growth as the single cleanest proxy for net dollar inflow. ETF adds TradFi confirmation. Together they're the closest thing to a wholesale capital-in/capital-out measure.

18Bear Market Value Zone (BMVZ)

A price zone between Realized Price (RP) and True Market Mean (TMM) that historically defines where BTC spends most of its accumulation and redistribution time. Breaking above TMM = first structural confirmation of cycle recovery.

Fair-value anchors and price chart

The BTC Price and Cointime panels are two views of the same valuation stack. The price chart shows the fair-value anchors directly as levels and DCA zones around spot; Cointime explains the active-economic basis behind them.

The two anchors

• Realized Price (RP) = Realized Cap / Circulating Supply = the aggregate cost basis of the network. Historically the "everyone paid" reference level. Floor of the BMVZ.
• True Market Mean (TMM) = price / AVIV ratio (Cointime Economics). Adjusts RP for dormant supply, giving the "active economic mean" rather than the raw cost basis. Ceiling of the BMVZ.

The AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is the Cointime Economics metric. When AVIV is low (< 1), TMM is above spot → market is undervalued vs its economic mean. When AVIV is high (> 1), TMM is below spot → market is overvalued.

TMM is live-derived now

Previously the dashboard used a hardcoded TMM = 1.44 × RP multiplier (a common heuristic). That's been replaced with live TMM = current_price / aviv_ratio, which is the actual Cointime Economics definition. The old multiplier was off by 5-10% at any given time; the new calculation is exact.

LTH Cooldown Tracker

Alongside the BMVZ band, the same panel tracks two LTH-specific cool-down metrics:

1. Realized Loss 30d SMA — the 30-day smoothed total realized loss. Historically needs to drop below ~$50M/day for LTH capitulation to be considered cooled. This is a total-network proxy because LTH-specific realized-loss flow is not published as a public CryptoWatch-owned metric.
2. LTH Supply in Loss — total BTC currently held by LTH wallets that are underwater. Needs to drop below ~1M BTC for full cooldown.

When both cooldown thresholds fire, the LTH cohort has finished its capitulation phase and the cycle floor is confirmed. This is a lagging confirmation, not a leading signal — it tells you "the capitulation is done" after the bottom is already in.

19Divergence & trap detection

Detects market-reversal traps by cross-layer divergence. When price moves one direction but orthogonal signals (Smart Money, exchange flows, sentiment, funding, capital flows, institutional flows) disagree, that's a trap signature. The panel lists active divergences with full evidence — transparent, not opaque scoring.

4 detectable patterns

Evidence-based design

Each flag requires 3+ orthogonal conditions agreeing before firing (severity scales with how many conditions agree). The panel shows the full evidence list so you can see WHICH signals fired. You can read the bullets and decide whether you trust each one for your specific trade — no opaque risk score.

When no flag is active, the panel explicitly says "No active divergences — price and orthogonal signals are aligned. The current move is clean — no trap signature detected in the last 7 days." Silence is useful too.

Caveats

• These are 7-day-horizon signals based on daily data. Not for intraday scalping.
• Multi-source divergence increases probability of reversal but never guarantees it.
• Use as a "conflict checker" alongside the Composite Signal and Tier 1/2 panels — not as a standalone decision.
• Stop-hunt / liquidity-grab detection is not yet implemented (requires hourly data).

20Daily brief system

The dashboard ships one scheduled alert per day: a deterministic morning brief sent at 07:00 WIB to the configured operator chat and, when configured, the public channel. Everything else is intentional silence.

The morning brief

The production schedule sends the brief first, then refreshes and records the day's accountable evidence in dependency order:

1. 06:30 WIB — Truth Canary checks the active product contracts.
2. 07:00 WIB — telegram_morning_brief.py reads the current CryptoWatch snapshot and sends the deterministic brief.
3. 08:05 WIB — the daily market-data pipeline refreshes the source artifacts.
4. 08:15 WIB — the separate prediction producer → tracker → resolver chain records the day's accountable forecast.
5. 08:30 WIB — the daily Intelligence artifact synthesizes only after the source refresh completes.

What the brief contains

• Headline — the current snapshot verdict in one line.
• Narrative — a compact explanation derived from the snapshot.
• 24-hour deltas — up to three material changes with severity labels.
• Contrarian case — the strongest opposing read when one exists.
• Dashboard link — the full evidence remains on cryptowatch.id.

Fear & Greed

Fear & Greed is the contrarian sentiment gauge. Low and rising readings can support accumulation; high and falling readings can warn that distribution has started.

In-browser freshness awareness

Every panel shows a small pill indicating its data age and expected cadence (e.g., 44m · daily, 2m · 5min). A sticky freshness banner under the nav shows overall pipeline health — green when all inputs are within their expected cadence, amber when anything is stale, red when multiple inputs are very stale. See Signal coverage & cadence.

Re-enabling alerts (not recommended)

If you want to re-enable intraday alerts, know what you're signing up for: you need to apply hysteresis to prevent tier-boundary thrashing (e.g., BUY threshold +9 / WAIT threshold +5 instead of both at ±8). You also need to either kill the AI per-alert enrichment or fetch fresh per alert — the cached replay is a trust violation. See feedback_no_intraday_alerts.md in the memory system for the full incident retro.

22Signal coverage & refresh cadence

The public docs show the type of signal each pipeline contributes and how fresh it should be. Exact private source names, account tiers, source URLs, call budgets, and private licensing details are intentionally not published. If a feed is stale, the indicator it powers drops out of the composite and the confidence score reflects it. The freshness banner at the top of the dashboard + per-panel age badges surface staleness in real time.

Daily pipeline · 08:05 WIB

Live feeds · 5-minute cron

Liquidation levels

The Execution Layer's Liquidations row estimates nearby long- and short-liquidation clusters from derivatives liquidity, top-trader positioning, and leverage tiers. Treat cluster sizes as estimates; price levels come from the liquidation formula.

Prediction markets

Current real-money policy odds are a bounded input to Macro Regime's permission line. They can force a WAIT when zero-cut risk is elevated, but there is no standalone Prediction Markets panel or cross-venue tape.

On-demand

Frontend polling

The dashboard frontend hydrates from /api/cw/snapshot plus a small set of CryptoWatch-owned artifact contracts on every 30-second interval. This reads cached backend data; a browser refresh does not trigger upstream collection.

Freshness banner methodology

The sticky banner at the top of the dashboard inspects file mtimes across every signal class and returns a structured freshness map. Each input has an expected cadence (daily / 15min / 5min) and a threshold:

• 5min cadence: fresh if ≤10m old, stale if ≤30m, else very_stale
• 15min cadence: fresh if ≤20m old, stale if ≤1h, else very_stale
• Daily cadence: fresh if ≤28h old, stale if ≤48h, else very_stale

The banner shows the worst status across both groups (daily pipeline + live feeds). Each individual panel ALSO shows a per-panel badge (e.g., 44m · daily or 2m · 5min) so you can see at a glance which panel depends on which cadence. Details accordion (click "details") shows the full per-source breakdown.

23Glossary

AVIV Ratio

Active Value / Investor Value. A Cointime Economics valuation metric that replaces MVRV Z-Score for the post-ETF era by reweighting supply by coin age.

Backwardation

A state of the implied volatility curve where front-month IV is higher than back-month IV. Traders are paying a premium for immediate protection — fear of a near-term move is priced higher than long-term uncertainty. Historically rare and bottom-coincident (2020-03 COVID, 2022-11 FTX both had brief backwardation at the low).

Bottom Proximity Score

Our composite 0-100% synthesis of bottom-relevant signals: MVRV ratio, NUPL, Puell Multiple, Supply-in-Profit, drawdown depth, LTH MVRV, and Liveliness. Each subscore is weighted by its historical reliability at calling cycle lows. The composite reaches 80-95% at confirmed cycle bottoms (2015, 2018, 2022) and drops to 5-15% at confirmed tops. See §08 Indicator Reference for the component list.

Cointime Economics

Framework developed by ARK Invest and an on-chain analytics partner (2023) that treats coin-age as the primary dimension for on-chain valuation. Replaces classic MVRV metrics that get distorted by large dormant stashes.

Contango

A state of the implied volatility curve where back-month IV is higher than front-month IV. The normal state. Traders are more worried about long-term uncertainty than immediate moves. Steep contango (back-month IV >> front-month) is a distribution warning.

Delta (Δ)

Options terminology for how much an option's price changes per $1 change in the underlying. A 25-delta call moves 25 cents per $1 BTC move. "25Δ skew" compares the IV of 25-delta calls vs 25-delta puts to measure directional positioning without being distorted by at-the-money traders.

Diminishing Extremes

The historical observation that recent BTC cycles have shown milder valuation peaks and shallower drawdowns. It is a small-sample structural hypothesis—not a guaranteed curve. The framework tests trailing cycle-relative ranks, legacy thresholds, and post-ETF samples separately. See §05 Framework design rationale and §13 Case studies.

DVOL

BTC options volatility index. The "crypto VIX" — a 30-day forward-looking implied volatility measurement from BTC options.

Liveliness

Ratio of coindays destroyed to coindays created over the lifetime of the Bitcoin supply. Falling liveliness = LTHs hoarding. Rising liveliness = LTHs distributing.

LTH / STH

Long-Term Holder (>155 days) / Short-Term Holder (<155 days). The 155-day threshold comes from on-chain analytics research identifying when coin behavior statistically transitions from reactive to dormant.

MVRV

Market Value / Realized Value. The ratio of BTC's market cap to its on-chain realized cap (the sum of all UTXOs valued at the price they last moved). MVRV < 1 means the average coin is underwater.

NUPL

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. (Market cap − realized cap) / market cap. NUPL < 0 means the network is in net unrealized loss territory — historically rare, only at bear-market bottoms.

Open Interest (OI)

The total number of outstanding derivative contracts (futures or options) that have not yet been settled. Each contract has a long and a short side — OI measures the aggregate size of the derivative market. We use BTC futures OI divided by BTC market cap as the leverage regime gauge. See OI / Market Cap.

Puell Multiple

Daily BTC miner issuance in USD divided by its 365-day moving average. Puell < 0.5 means miner revenue is deeply below its historical norm — historically a bottom signal because it implies capitulation in the miner cohort.

Realized Cap

The sum of all BTC valued at the price they last moved on-chain, rather than current market price. If a coin last moved at $30K, it counts as $30K in realized cap — even if BTC is now $75K. Realized cap is the foundation of MVRV, SOPR, LTH/STH cohort metrics, and Realized Price. It's a measure of aggregate cost basis.

SIP (Supply in Profit)

Percentage of circulating BTC supply that is currently held at a profit. SIP < 50% means most coins are underwater.

SOPR

Spent Output Profit Ratio. The average profit ratio of all BTC spent on a given day. SOPR = 1.0 is breakeven. SOPR < 1.0 means the average mover is realizing a loss.

True Market Mean (TMM)

A Cointime Economics variant of Realized Price that reweights supply by dormancy. Unlike raw Realized Price, TMM removes dormant supply from the calculation — so long-lost or deeply-held coins don't drag the mean down. TMM typically sits above Realized Price by 30-80% and acts as a practical support/resistance level on the price chart.

Vaultedness

Cointime metric — the fraction of supply that is "vaulted" (aging without being spent). High vaultedness = hoarding regime.

Zero-FP Tier 1

Four indicators (MVRV < 1, NUPL < 0, Puell < 0.5, SIP < 50%) that have only ever all triggered together at the final lows of Bitcoin cycles (2015, 2018, 2022). "Zero false positive" refers to the all-four-simultaneously confluence being historically unique to cycle bottoms. Partial triggers (1–3 of 4) can occur in mid-cycle corrections.

25Deterministic Daily Forecast · Accountability

The daily forecast is a deterministic CryptoWatch Core vote over the same live inputs shown on Macro: Composite, Truth, State, and Cycle. It does not run a multi-agent debate, claim analyst agreement, or create discretionary price targets.

Ordered 08:15 WIB pipeline

  current Macro snapshot + setup evidence
                  |
      deterministic cw_core vote
                  |
        prediction_daily.json
                  |
       server-owned call ledger
                  |
       T+7 / T+30 resolution
                  |
  Forecast Accountability + Track Record
    

The producer emits direction-only calls for today, week, and month with input provenance and explicit invalidations. Missing or stale source inputs fail the run instead of being converted into invented analyst views or extra calls.

Forecast accountability ledger

The Forecast Accountability panel is the public record of dated calls and their resolution windows. It separates live forecast accountability from historical backtest performance so the dashboard does not blur real-time calls with hindsight.

Accuracy tracking

Every dated call is stored in the server-owned prediction ledger with its T+0 BTC anchor. The panel reads /api/track-record and reports:

• T+7 directional accuracy — CORRECT / (CORRECT + INCORRECT) for BULL and BEAR calls only
• Honest exclusions — NEUTRAL no-bets and outcomes inside the ±2.5% dead zone do not enter directional accuracy
• T+30 grade accuracy — the independently resolved month-direction field, with its own resolved and pending counts
• Recent calls — dated direction, T+7 outcome, T+30 status, and source

No percentage is shown until its horizon has resolved at least one eligible call. Sample counts remain visible beside every rate; the dashboard does not use browser-local history or seed backfilled wins.

26Distribution evidence · artifact retained, panel retired

Distribution detection is no longer a standalone “open this panel for X/6” product surface, and the Cycle Top Radar panel itself is now retired. The versioned cycle_top_distribution artifact stays live: persistent distribution phase, honesty-gated horizons, and planned de-risk budget in Action; the top-proximity story is carried by CW Risk. See §12 Cycle Top Radar and the panel field guide.

What still matters as evidence

Family-level evidence still includes valuation extremes (AVIV / MVRV / NUPL / Puell-class), owner distribution (LTH spending, realized profit), demand and ETF flows, leverage/funding crowding, price structure near highs, and cycle timing. Those inputs feed the phase engine; raw indicator count is not conviction.

How to read it on the dashboard

1. Open Macro → Cycle → CW Risk for the top-proximity read; the distribution artifact feeds the planned de-risk budget in Action.
2. Read distribution phase first.
3. Treat unavailable horizon percentages as fail-closed honesty, not “no risk.”
4. Cross-check Money (ETF / entity / LTH transfer) and Action (funding, options, liquidations) before changing posture.

27Regime-conditional L4 scoring

The same L4 positioning indicator can mean different things depending on where the market is in the cycle. Funding at +54% during early markup can be normal bull exuberance; the same reading during distribution danger is a top-risk signal. The scoring engine adjusts thresholds based on the halving regime.

Funding (BTC annualized)

DVOL (BTC Implied Volatility)

OI / Market Cap

BTC-SPX correlation as layer multiplier

When the 30-day BTC-SPX correlation is > 0.6 (risk-asset regime), L1 Macro scores are multiplied by 1.5x and L3 On-Chain by 0.75x. When correlation is < 0.3 (decoupled), the reverse applies. This mechanizes the insight that macro dominates when BTC trades like a risk asset, and on-chain dominates when BTC decouples.

28Signal velocity

Next to the composite score, a small badge shows the 7-day and 30-day change in the composite score. This answers: "Is the framework accelerating toward a bottom or stalling?"

The velocity is stored in your browser's localStorage (rolling 30-day window). It accumulates one data point per daily visit. After 7 days you'll see the 7d delta; after 30 days both deltas appear.

The 30d delta is the more interesting one for macro cycle analysis — it shows whether the framework has been structurally improving or deteriorating over a full month.

29Q&A guide — reading the dashboard

Real questions, mapped to the exact current surfaces and readings that answer them. Grouped by who's asking.

For the DCA investor

Q: Is now a good time to buy BTC?

Surfaces: Composite (Now primary) → read the verdict (BUY / WAIT / SELL) and score. Open Decision Integrity (Supporting signals) for coverage and agreement. If confidence < 60%, data is stale or indicators disagree — wait for clarity.
Cross-check: Cycle Position Bottoming receipt (low X/6 = no confirmation yet), Cycle Position phase bar, Fear & Greed-style sentiment as context if on-chain scoring agrees.

Q: How far could BTC fall from here?

Surfaces: Macro Permission → Tail-Risk receipt. BTC Setup → DCA map receipt (zones from live Realized Price). Cycle Position → Cointime receipt for AVIV / liveliness.
Read: Treat the active tail scenarios as invalidation conditions, then size only at the realized-price zones. CryptoWatch no longer publishes an unowned probability tree or point-target simulator.

Q: Where exactly should I place my DCA orders?

Panel: DCA Map — receipt on BTC Setup. Zones are a research-only planning ladder from live Realized Price. They do not represent observed execution. Open the sibling “where valuation waits” receipt on BTC Setup for the zone ladder.

Q: Have any bottom indicators fired?

Surface: Cycle Position → Bottoming process receipt → current bottoming state, confirmation score X/6 (each gate PASS or OPEN), and invalidation watch (ACTIVE / CLEAR).
Also check: descriptive proximity on the same receipt; the sibling historical-validation receipt; Cycle Position phase bar and CW Risk (Supporting signals) for orientation; do not wait for a published likelihood % until its calibration receipt says so.

Q: When should I stop accumulating and start selling?

Panel: CW Risk carries the top-proximity read — the retired Cycle Top Radar's artifact still publishes distribution phase first (EARLY / ACTIVE / EXHAUSTION). Horizon percentages stay unavailable until calibration gates pass.
Also check: planned 20/50/30 de-risk budget eligibility in Action; Money (Liquidity + Entity Regime); Action timing rows on BTC Setup. Market Pulse Scorecard is retired — use Macro Permission.

Q: Are long-term holders panicking or accumulating?

Surface: Cycle Position → LTH cohort receipt for net position change, SOPR, and MVRV. Entity Regime → LTH→exchange receipt for coins moving to exchanges.
Cross-check: Entity Regime plus Liquidity ETF receipts. When LTH and ETF agree, conviction is highest.

Q: Is the macro environment supportive?

Surface: Macro Permission → M2, dollar, rates, and risk receipts. Look for permission vs headwind, not a second Now verdict.
Cross-check: prediction-market pricing for Fed rate probability and policy regime.

For the crypto analyst

Q: MVRV 1.6 vs STH-MVRV 0.9 — which matters more?

Surfaces: Cycle Position value-zone receipt (aggregate MVRV + position in zone). Cycle Position LTH cohort receipt (LTH MVRV separately). STH MVRV remains a confirming scoring input, not a standalone panel. Composite scoring still uses each MVRV variant in L3.
Rule: Signal Conflict Resolver → Rule 2: "MVRV Aggregate > LTH SOPR for cycle reads." STH MVRV below 1.0 is a leading indicator of cohort stress but doesn't override aggregate valuation.

Q: CDD shows a distribution wave but LTH and ETF evidence are bullish — which is right?

Surfaces: Cycle Position → Cointime receipt for CDD / AVIV. Entity Regime and Liquidity ETF receipts → the owned LTH/ETF bull/bear evidence.
Rule: The Composite conflict resolver gives owned cohort alignment authority over CDD for structural calls. CDD measures old-coin movement — it fires for tax-loss harvesting, custody rebalancing, and real selling. When LTH + ETF both point bull, CDD is probably flagging movement, not surrender.

Q: Funding at -50% annualized — can I build a delta-neutral carry trade?

Surface: BTC Setup → Timing rows receipt (Funding, Options, Liquidations, Contrarian). Funding is execution-timing evidence for the existing Action thesis, not a standalone carry-trade panel.
Cross-check: the Options row’s IV term structure for whether funding is expected to normalize (contango) or persist (backwardation).

Q: Where in the cycle are we? How many days to the next bottom/top?

Surfaces: Cycle Position → phase bar (default). Bottoming receipt and CW Risk (Supporting signals) at the extremes. Cowen suite is a Cycle Position receipt.
Cross-check: halving-day context inside Cycle Position; never treat calendar day-count alone as a top or bottom call. Terminal-top day probabilities publish only when gates pass.

Q: ETF inflows are strong but activity looks quiet — what gives?

Surfaces: Liquidity (ETF / pipeline receipt, plus the sibling 24h · 30d · context receipt). Entity Regime for who is driving, including the LTH→exchange receipt.
Read: Steady net inflows with muted activity can still be accumulation; the Bottoming process ETF dual-gate requires both stabilization and non-muted activity before that confirmation gate PASSes. Market Pulse Scorecard is retired.

Q: Is the correlation with stocks high enough that macro dominates?

Surface: Macro Permission → risk / correlation receipts. BTC-SPX 30d correlation still feeds the composite scoring engine as a layer multiplier. There is no standalone Macro-Beta Mode panel.
Rule: Correlation > 0.6 → L1 Macro scores weighted 1.5x, L3 On-Chain 0.75x. Correlation < 0.3 → reverse. Shown in the composite breakdown table with multiplier annotations.

For the institutional allocator

Q: What's the framework's historical accuracy?

Surface: Track Record / Ledger — resolved directional calls and calibration. Historical cycle-inflection grades remain methodology context on this page, not a live Historical Backtest panel.
Also: four-layer agreement vs conflict on Decision Integrity. Low cross-layer correlation means each layer adds independent information; high correlation means you are reading one signal four times.

Q: How should I think about position sizing given the current signal?

Surfaces: Macro Permission → Tail-Risk receipt. BTC Setup → DCA map receipt. Composite / Decision Integrity → coverage vs agreement.
Rule: Four-layer agreement raises conviction; L4 conflict keeps timing unconfirmed; hostile L1 lowers confidence in bullish posture. Position sizing remains outside the framework.

Q: How do I evaluate BTC vs broader crypto for first allocation?

Surface: CryptoWatch is BTC-first. There is no standalone Cross-Asset Bottom Signals panel. Use Cycle Position (phase + bottoming) plus Macro Permission (cross-asset risk) for Bitcoin; do not treat alt drawdown tables as a current product surface.
Also: Liquidity pipeline receipts show whether capital is entering Bitcoin. Rotation into alts is not a live Macro owner.

Q: What are the specific exit criteria for a multi-year position?

Surfaces: Action (BTC Setup) for planned de-risk budget eligibility. CW Risk (Cycle supporting) for distribution-phase / top-proximity. Composite’s Now canvas for the Bitcoin Thermometer 0–100 heat. There is no standalone Distribution Playbook or Distribution Confluence panel.
Also: time window, realized-price multiples, and on-chain heat remain methodology context — not a second Action owner.

24Public API and webhooks

The supported machine surface is intentionally smaller than the internal runtime. The OpenAPI document is the stability contract; browser helpers and compatibility routes are not automatically public promises.

What is supported

• Decision state: composite, cycle, regime, Bitcoin State, daily changes, and morning-brief receipts.
• Accountability: calibration, available snapshot dates, and CSV exports.
• Agent access: the hosted MCP contract and its current tool list.
• Delivery: authenticated webhooks with create, list, test, delivery history, failure status, and redelivery operations.

Retained machine-only treasury capability

Strategy treasury mNAV is no longer a user-facing Macro panel. Its fail-closed data capability remains intentionally available through /api/public/v1/mstr/mnav and MCP tool cw.mstr_mnav, and the same holdings configuration remains an input to the Tail-Risk Register. Removing the panel does not retire those API, MCP, or risk-monitoring contracts.

Keys and webhooks

Read endpoints allow anonymous access at the lower limit. To create a developer key for higher limits and write operations, sign in to your CryptoWatch account and use Account → Developer keys; the key is returned once and is owned by that account. Keep it outside browser storage, chat messages, and source control. To have a coding agent wire the REST API into a project, use Account → Developer credentials → Copy prompt and keep the raw key in CW_API_KEY.

curl -X POST https://cryptowatch.id/api/public/v1/webhooks \
  -H "X-API-Key: $CRYPTOWATCH_API_KEY" \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  -d '{"url":"https://example.com/cw","events":["composite.changed"]}'

Independent research API

The separately graded research-thesis engine is visible on Track Record. Its current theses and calibration remain experimental research endpoints, not part of the stable public API contract and not the official deterministic Daily Bitcoin Call.

30Disclaimer

31HK Spot BTC ETF Flows

Hong Kong spot BTC ETF daily flows track institutional demand from Asia via three HK-listed funds: ChinaAMC, Harvest, and Bosera & HashKey. These are the only spot BTC ETFs accessible to mainland Chinese investors through the Stock Connect program.

Net positive flow indicates creations (new BTC entering custody) — a bullish signal for Asia-led demand. Net negative flow indicates redemptions — distribution pressure. When HK flows are strongly positive while US flows are neutral or negative, it signals a demand rotation toward Asia. Persistent outflows suggest mainland appetite is cooling.

Data source: CryptoWatch-derived derivatives artifact. Updated daily.

32Corporate Treasuries

Public and private company BTC treasury holdings tracked through CryptoWatch's treasury artifact. Covers listed companies, miners, ETFs, governments, and private firms with material BTC on their balance sheet.

The total BTC held by all tracked entities is a structural supply-absorption metric. When public companies accumulate, it removes float from circulation. When they distribute, it adds supply pressure. Watch the top holders list for concentration risk — if one entity controls more than 5% of circulating supply, their liquidation risk becomes a macro factor. Miner holdings are particularly sensitive to hash-price regime shifts.

Data source: CryptoWatch-derived treasury artifact. Updated daily.

33Truth Engine · Cross-Source Conflict Resolver

A unified verdict from ~30 signal feeds. Most dashboards show each signal in isolation. The Truth Engine ingests all of them, normalizes to a single −3..+3 scale, detects where feeds disagree, applies domain-weighted resolution rules, and tells you: what's the consensus, where do feeds conflict, and what's the strongest counter-case?

Four primitives unified: (1) owned cohort alignment — LTH/ETF agreement; (2) Trap Divergence — price-vs-signals divergence flags; (3) domain-weighted signal voting — source conflicts resolved by declared authority; (4) Composite Gauge — 4-layer weighted vote.

Conflict types detected: pairwise — two individual sources disagree; cross-layer — Macro says one thing, On-Chain says another; temporal — short-term (funding/sentiment) vs long-term (halving/Tier 1). Each conflict reduces overall confidence by 5-15% depending on severity.

Authority override: Tier 1 on-chain sources (Puell, MVRV, NUPL, Supply-in-Profit) with |score| = 3 can override up to 2 dissenting lower-tier sources. This prevents a single noisy sentiment reading from swamping a clear structural signal.

Steelman: Every verdict carries a mandatory counter-case — the strongest evidence-based argument against the consensus. A Truth Engine without an adversarial counter-case is just an average.

Signal feeds: all inputs already in the Macro snapshot (~30 feeds across L1 Macro, L2 Cycle, L3 On-Chain, and L4 Positioning & Timing). No new API calls. Backend-computed, 60s cache.

34Entity Regime · Who Is Driving the Cycle

Standard cycle indicators tell you WHERE you are in the cycle. Entity Regime tells you WHO is driving it — which changes everything about what the signal means.

In the ETF era, "LTH supply dropping" can mean either: (a) bearish — old whales distributing into exchange demand, or (b) bullish — coins being absorbed by structural ETF bid. The current classifier uses owned on-chain, ETF-flow, spot-premium, and cycle caches; missing inputs are surfaced as input coverage rather than quietly treated as neutral.

Active regime types: Retail Distribution (LTH → exchanges → demand, classic top risk); Miner Capitulation (forced selling below breakeven, bottom signal); Miner OTC Absorption (miner sell pressure without exchange confirmation); Double Exit (LTH + miners both distributing, strongest bear); Structural Bid (ETF inflows + LTH holding, strongest bull); Stablecoin Buildup (dry powder accumulating); Regime Confusion (signals contradict, wait for clarity). Retired third-party label modes stay retired unless a real owned replacement exists.

How to use it: trade with the regime only when the driver, evidence chips, and cross-source check line up. When the panel says Regime Confusion, it is telling you not to force a narrative; the highest-EV move is waiting for the supply cohorts to agree.

Zero new API credits. Reads existing on-chain metric parquets (LTH supply, miner outflow, exchange balances), ETF-flow history, spot-premium context, and stablecoin context. No additional private-source calls. Heuristic-first decision tree; historical tracking lives in the entity-regime accuracy table.